Daniel W. Drezner

Tyler Cowen gives me an assignment

Tyler Cowen gives me an assignment

Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen makes a request:

Daniel Drezner remains on the fence, concerning the next Presidential election. He writes about supporting Bush, Kerry, or perhaps a third party candidate (unlikely). But why should he restrict himself to “pure strategies”? Why can’t he support some candidate with some positive probability? How about, for instance, “I support Bush with p = 0.63.” Or “I support Kerry with p = 0.57″, and so on. That way we would know how strong (or weak) his current view is.

Chris Lawrence‘s doubts aside, this seems fair to both me and my readers. I’ll be posting my first p-value after Kerry’s speech tonight. Obviously, this value will likely fluctuate over the next few months. One thing the probability that I will vote for someone either than Kerry or Bush is zero.