- By Thomas E. RicksThomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
My gut feeling is that U.S. officials are beginning to give up on getting serious anti-Taliban help from the government of Pakistan. My guess is that there won’t be any official change stated, but more actions that Pakistani officials haven’t been consulted about. Also, if the ISI really is interfering with peace talks with the Taliban, I’d expect to see a rollup of ISI agents in Afghanistan. This would be done quietly, if possible, so the public signs would be reactions such as the kidnapping of Indian officials in Afghanistan, or bombing the Indian embassy again.
Shorting Pakistan is kind of a no-brainer: In the long one, which is the better ally to have, India or Pakistan?