Daniel W. Drezner

T-Paw’s foreign policy vision…. LIVE (and UPDATED)!!!

T-Paw’s foreign policy vision…. LIVE (and UPDATED)!!!

As FP’s indefatigable Josh Rogin reported yesterday, GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty will " deliver a major address on foreign policy on Tuesday in what his top aides are billing as a rebuttal to what they see as President Barack Obama’s flawed May 19 speech.

Your humble blogger will be listening in — live!!– and will provide real-time updates on the blog and on Twitter.

I’ll be looking for two things from this speech. First, how does Pawlenty straddle between his more neocon-friendly foreign policy approach with the stronger streak of retrenchment rhetoric that permeates the current GOP primary voter? Will he at least sound isolationism-curious, or will he conclude that the Tea Party’s influence is waning? As I said before, my money is that he’ll cozy up to this wing by sounding protectionist trade themes. The foreign policy pickings of Pawlenty’s website are pretty slim.

Second, will Pawlenty score any Trumpie nominations? He came veeeeery close during the New Hampshire debate with his casual assertion that the United States could grow at 5% a year for a decade because China and Brazil had done it — ignoring the vast differences in economic development between the United States and those two BRIC economies.

The speech will begin at 9:30 AM, so tune in so my life has meaning so you can learn what a GOP candidate thinks about the world!

[UPDATE] Live-tweets below, summary analysis at the bottom:

9:33 AM: Pawlenty starts by praising CFR

9:34 AM: T-Paw on U.S. in Middle East: "now is not the time to retreat from freedom’s rise."

9:36 AM: T-Paw ain’t coddling Tea Partiers — bashes members of GOP for "out-isolating" Democrats.

9:37 AM: T-Paw: "History teaches us there is no such thing as stable oppression."

9:38 AM: T-Paw blasts Obama for being silent during Iran’s 2009 Green Movement, cutting democracy aid to Egypt during same year.

9:42 AM: T-Paw has four categories of ME countries. Category 1: emerging democracies in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Iraq. US must support democracy.

9:43 AM: T-Paw makes shrewd point that revolution in Egypt has caused a populist rejection of economic reforms that Mubarak instituted in past decade

9:44 AM: On Libya, T-Paw rejects "leading from behind" (GASP!!) recognizing TNC, and using full weight of U.S. force to ensure regime change.

9:45 AM: T-Paw’s second category — the monarchies. Claims Jordan, Morocco are engaging in "real reforms" Paging

9:46 AM: T-Paw observes that U.S.-Saudi relaions are a a new low, but NOT because of Arab Spring. Apparently due to Obama cozying up to Iran. Hmm…

9:48 AM: T-Paw’s Category 3: anti-US states of Iran, Syria. Blasts Obama for staying too close to Bashir Assad for too long.

9:49 AM: T-Paw’s Category 3: anti-US states of Iran, Syria. Blasts Obama for staying too close to Bashir Assad for too long.

9:50 AM: T-Paw argues for "more forceful sanctions" to push business elites in Syria away from Assad regime

9:52 AM: On Iran, T-Paw also calls for new, tougher sanctions as a policy solution.

9:52 AM: T-Paw’s Category 4 is…. Israel!!! "Nowhere is Obama’s lack of judgment clearer"

9:53 AM: T-Paw: Obama’s Israel-Palestinan obsession is absurd – Arab Spring shows that conflict is NOT at the heart of the Middle East

9:54 AM: T-Paw: Peace will only come to Israel/Palestine when everyone in the region recognizes the US totally has Israel’s back

9:57 AM: T-Paw: "America is exceptional, and we have the moral clarity to lead the world."

9:58 AM: T-Paw says that everyone should listen to David Petraeus the most on Afghanistan

9:59 AM: T-Paw goes off on Republican isolationists, arguing that one party focusing on decline & retrenchment is enough.

10:00 AM: Jon Meacham is moderating the Q&A. His first response to T-Paw: "Withdrawal? Decline? Retrenchment? Really?"

10:05 AM: Pawlenty acknowledges that autocracies can’t be converted into democracies overnight, "takes generations."

10:08 AM: T-Paw: War on Terror will require a long, "episodic" commitment

10:10 AM: Asked about worse possibilities after Assad, T-Paw responds, "No one ever asked who would follow Hitler."

10:11 AM: BREAKING: Pawlenty pledges US will not invade every Middle Eastern country.

10:15 AM: BREAKING: Pawlenty really does not like "cookie-cutter, one-size-fits-all" foreign policy strategies #anticookieist

10:19 AM: Pawlenty: U.S. should "not necessarily" use military force in Syria.

10:21 AM: Pawlenty thinks Obama "dithered for a month" at the moment when U.S. force could have pushed Khaddafy out.

10:27 AM: James Traub from @FP_Magazine asks what to do about elections leading to anti-Israeli leaders in ME. T-Paw: start early, think long-term

My final assessment: Pawlenty successfully skirted a Trumpie nomination — he exaggerated Obama’s cozying up to Iran, but that’s pretty much GOP boilerplate at this point. Pawlenty was also quite outspoken in attacking "isolationists’ within the GOP as well.

The occasionally overheated piece of rhetoric aside, this was a reasonably coherent speech that placed way too much faith in the ability of more sanctions to force out regimes in Iran and Syria.

What do you think?