- By Clyde Prestowitz
Clyde Prestowitz is the founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute (ESI), where he has become one of the world's leading writers and strategists on globalization and competitiveness, and an influential advisor to the U.S. and other governments. He has also advised a number of global corporations such as Intel, FormFactor, and Fedex and serves on the advisory board of Indonesia's Center for International and Strategic Studies.
I just watched an online interview by the New York Times‘ Tom Friedman with Bill Gates. Friedman notes that as recently as six years ago there was no Facebook, no cloud, barely a Twitter, no iPad, and 4G was a parking place. Gates nods emphatically and says this shows that America is still number one in innovation. Indeed, he emphasizes that more innovation occurs in America than in the rest of the world combined. Then he gives a puzzled face and says that in view of all this innovation, he can’t understand why poll after poll now shows Americans to be worried about their future and that of the United States. He adds that he guesses it must be because of uncertainty created by the political gridlock in Washington.
Well, it’s always safe to blame Washington, but what I wonder is what Gates knows about innovation or worry. Don’t get me wrong, I admire Gates as one of the great business minds of our time. But he’s no Steve Jobs. Jobs knew about innovation. Gates knows about negotiation and standard setting and business strategy, but he’s never been an innovator. The original MS DOS personal computer operating system on which the Microsoft empire is based was bought by Gates from a friend and then licensed by Microsoft to IBM. Gates bamboozled IBM by persuading it to take only non-exclusive rights to the system, but he didn’t invent the system.
Or take the Microsoft Explorer browser. Mosaic and Netscape were the first browsers. Microsoft had no clue and was scared to death when Netscape debuted. Gates bundled Explorer to his Windows monopoly operating systems and, with the help of sleepy U.S. government anti-trust oversight and friendly courts, killed off Netscape. Brilliant, perhaps, but not innovative. More a copy of the Rockefeller Standard Oil model than of Apple.
Gates also doesn’t know much about worry because he’s a rich kid who always had a job and then bargained his way into one of the history’s greatest monopolies. Again, let’s give him credit for single-minded drive and focus, clever bargaining, and great business strategy. But he never had to worry. He never had to look at life through the eyes of an everyday American.
He does, however, present a perfect view of the world as seen through the eyes of the American elite. It worships at the alter of innovation and sees the future as an endless series of Facebooks, Twitters, and Groupons. If America is suffering from declining competitiveness and rising trade deficits, innovation, according to the elite, is the philosopher’s stone that will turn everything around.
Well, as Santayana said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." The British have a long tradition of innovation. Indeed, Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) once found that 54 percent of the world’s most important inventions were British while only 25 percent were American and 5 percent Japanese. The first commercial jet liner was the British Comet. The first digital audio system was British, as was the first operating television system. I could go on and on, but the point is that British industry wound up far behind U.S. industry in all of these sectors, and in many more as well. The British economy reaped very little benefit from these innovations because it did not fully commercialize or mass produce them. They created nice jobs for a relatively few brilliant scientists and engineers in Britain, but none for the average bloke. It was the American companies who came along behind and copied the Brits that garnered most of the sales and profits, American workers who got most of the jobs, and the American economy that gained most of the GDP growth from the innovations.
This history is now being repeated between the United States and Asia with the United States in the role of Great Britain. Average Americans are worried because they can see that, even as the elite is blinded by its own brilliance.
Another great American business leader has been making this point recently from his base in Silicon Valley. Former Intel CEO and Chairman Andy Grove, whose company accounts for half of the WinTel standard that has dominated the PC industry for the past thirty years, wrote in Bloomberg BusinessWeek a bit over a year ago that innovation without follow-up on scale and production is not a great wealth producer. In short, it is a necessary but not sufficient generator of jobs, wealth, and economic growth.
Josh Rogin covers national security and foreign policy and writes the daily Web column The Cable. His column appears bi-weekly in the print edition of The Washington Post. He can be reached for comments or tips at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Previously, Josh covered defense and foreign policy as a staff writer for Congressional Quarterly, writing extensively on Iraq, Afghanistan, Guantánamo Bay, U.S.-Asia relations, defense budgeting and appropriations, and the defense lobbying and contracting industries. Prior to that, he covered military modernization, cyber warfare, space, and missile defense for Federal Computer Week Magazine. He has also served as Pentagon Staff Reporter for the Asahi Shimbun, Japan's leading daily newspaper, in its Washington, D.C., bureau, where he reported on U.S.-Japan relations, Chinese military modernization, the North Korean nuclear crisis, and more.
A graduate of George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, Josh lived in Yokohama, Japan, and studied at Tokyo's Sophia University. He speaks conversational Japanese and has reported from the region. He has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, the Embassy of Japan, and the Brookings Institution.
Josh's reporting has been featured on CNN, MSNBC, C-Span, CBS, ABC, NPR, WTOP, and several other outlets. He was a 2008-2009 National Press Foundation's Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellow, 2009 military reporting fellow with the Knight Center for Specialized Journalism and the 2011 recipient of the InterAction Award for Excellence in International Reporting. He hails from Philadelphia and lives in Washington, D.C.| The Cable |
Blake Hounshell is managing editor at Foreign Policy, having formerly been Web editor. Hounshell oversees ForeignPolicy.com and has commissioned and edited numerous cover stories for the print magazine, including National Magazine Award finalist "Why Do They Hate Us?" by Mona Eltahawy. He also edits The Cable, FP's first foray into daily original reporting, and was editor of Colum Lynch's Turtle Bay, which in 2011 won a National Magazine award for best reporting in a digital format.
Blake joined Foreign Policy in 2006 after living in Cairo, where he studied Arabic, missed his Steelers finally win one for the thumb, and worked for the Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies. Blake was a 2011 finalist for the Livingston Awards prize for young journalists for his reporting on the Arab uprisings, and his Twitter feed was named one of Time magazine's "140 Best Twitter Feeds of 2011." Under his leadership, in 2008, Passport, FP's flagship blog, won Media Industry Newsletter's "Best of the Web" award in the blog category. Along with Elizabeth Dickinson, he edited Southern Tiger: Chile's Fight for a Democratic and Prosperous Future, the memoirs of former Chilean president Ricardo Lagos, published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2012.
A graduate of Yale University, Blake speaks mangled Arabic and French, is an avid runner, and lives in Washington with his wife, musician Sandy Choi, and their toddler, David. Follow him on Twitter @blakehounshell.| Uncategorized |
Gordon Lubold is a national security reporter for Foreign Policy. He is also the author of FP's Situation Report, an e-mailed newsletter that is blasted out to more than 70,000 national security and foreign affairs subscribers each morning that includes the top nat-sec news, breaking news, tidbits, nuggets and what he likes to call "candy." Before arriving at FP, he was a senior advisor at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, where he wrote on national security and foreign policy. Prior to his arrival at USIP, he was a defense reporter for Politico, where he launched the popular Morning Defense early morning blog and tip-sheet. Prior to that, he was the Pentagon and national security correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor, and before that he was the Pentagon correspondent for the Army Times chain of newspapers. He has covered conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries in South Asia, and has reported on military matters in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Latin America as well as at American military bases across the country. He has spoken frequently on the sometimes-contentious relationship between the military and the media as a guest on numerous panels. He also appears on radio and television, including on CNN, public radio's Diane Rehm and To the Point, and C-SPAN's Washington Journal. He lives in Alexandria with his wife and two children.| Report |