- By Joshua Keating
Joshua Keating is associate editor at Foreign Policy and the editor of the Passport blog. He has worked as a researcher, editorial assistant, and deputy Web editor since joining the FP staff in 2007. In addition to being featured in Foreign Policy, his writing has been published by the Washington Post, Newsweek International, Radio Prague, the Center for Defense Information, and Romania's Adevarul newspaper. He has appeared as a commentator on CNN International, C-Span, ABC News, Al Jazeera, NPR, BBC radio, and others. A native of Brooklyn, New York, he studied comparative politics at Oberlin College.
It’s not a simple question, as Edward Wolfers explains for Al Jazeera:
The impasse between the two would-be prime ministers began when the speaker of parliament accepted the opposition’s claims that the prime ministership was vacant. At the time, Sir Michael Somare – who had been elected prime minister in 2007 – had been out of the country for several months while undergoing medical treatment in Singapore. Accordingly, parliament elected a new prime minister, Peter O’Neill.
O’Neill’s initial parliamentary majority – of 70 to 24 – included many former members of the coalition previously put together and led by Somare. Other members have subsequently changed sides.
In December, the Supreme Court found, by a majority of three to two, that Somare was still legally prime minister. Parliament responded by retroactively withdrawing the leave on which Somare had relied while he was out of the country and re-elected O’Neill. It also passed a new law preventing a person aged 72 or older from becoming prime minister. As Somare was already 75, the new law – if it is constitutional – makes him ineligible to return as prime minister.
Although both rivals have some claim to legitimacy – O’Neill has parliament’s backing, and Somare is supported by the Supreme Court – the country’s chief secretary and other heads of government departments have tended to side with O’Neill.
The fight culminated in an failed coup by pro-Somare military officers in late January. For now, the issue is still being deliberated by the courts, though Somare has continued to fight for his old office, and criticize the current government from the outside, including demanding an investigation into allegations that the current deputy prime minister sexually harassed a casino blackjack dealer.
It’s been an eventful couple of months in New Guinea politics. O’Neill’s predecessor as acting prime minister, Sam Abal, was ousted from office shortly after a woman’s body was discovered at his home and his son charged with murder.
The political uncertainty since the leadership switch and the attempted coup is understandably having a negative affect on the country’s economic outlook as well. The Australian government, PNG’s largest trading partner and former colonial power, seems to be working with O’Neill as the de facto leader, though Australian leaders have said little in public about the dispute.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, where he is the director of the Institute for Middle East Studies and of the Project on Middle East Political Science. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He is the author of The Arab Uprising (March 2012, PublicAffairs).
He publishes frequently on the politics of the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Arab media and information technology, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and Islamist movements.| Marc Lynch |