- By Christian CarylChristian Caryl is the author of Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century. A former reporter at Newsweek, he is a senior fellow at the Legatum Institute (which co-publishes Democracy Lab with Foreign Policy) and a contributing editor at the National Interest. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a regular contributor to the New York Review of Books.
RANGOON — Yesterday, on the day of the long-awaited election, I decided to return to Independence Ward, the Rangoon neighborhood I wrote about in my piece last week on the difficult choices facing Aung San Suu Kyi. It turned out to be a good place to be. Many of my journalist colleagues opted to spend the day in Kawhmu, the rural district on the edge of Rangoon where the Lady herself was running for a seat. But I figured it might be rewarding to go to a place that wasn’t at the forefront of the coverage. I wasn’t disappointed.
When I arrived, the first thing I noticed was a huge crowd gathered in front of one of the local offices of the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. Members of the local NLD chapter had set up a big chalkboard at the edge of the street, where they planned to tally the votes as the results came in. Even though there were no votes to count yet, since the polls were still open, onlookers were milling around in front of the board, anxiously discussing possible scenarios. NLD members were sitting in the small café in front of the office, sipping soft drinks and trading gossip. Everyone in the neighborhood seemed to be out on the street, some of them wearing T-shirts sporting NLD insignia or portraits of Aung San Suu Kyi. (Expressions of support for the pro-government party, on the other hand, were conspicuous by their absence.) The place was buzzing with excitement and anticipation. Ye Win Htun, an NLD spokesman, put it simply: "People want to know all about their election."
He wasn’t kidding. Again and again, the voters I encountered told me that they had woken up early that morning so that they could be at the polls as soon as they opened at 6 AM. This was the first time that any of them had been able to cast a vote for the NLD since 1990, when the party had won an overwhelming victory in the constituent assembly election (subsequently brutally suppressed by the reigning military junta). Everyone I spoke to was thrilled to have had the opportunity to vote for their local NLD candidate, and, by extension, for Aung San Suu Kyi: "I’m very happy," said one elderly gentleman who gave his name only as Albert. "It feels good."
Judging by the rest of my conversations, his words neatly captured the prevailing sentiment. Interestingly, it soon became apparent that many of the bystanders (drinking in the anticipatory atmosphere) had come to this neighborhood — which is part of Mingalar Taung Nyunt, the township that encompasses a big chunk of central Rangoon — from other areas that weren’t voting on this day. (Remember, yesterday’s vote was only a parliamentary by-election, involving less than 7 percent of the total constituencies in the country.) A young doctor, Nay Winn Aung, had come with two friends from another part of Rangoon just to be there. A staunch supporter of the NLD (though not a member), he told me how he had participated in the government-orchestrated election two years ago — but only so that he could mark his ballot with a big cross (thus invalidating it) to demonstrate his disregard for the whole process, which he described as a mockery of a real election. He spoke of his longing for a truly open society, and of his hope that the newly elected NLD parliamentarians, despite their small numbers, would be able to build coalitions with disaffected members of the military and the USDP, the pro-regime party. And he spoke of his fear that NLD supporters in some places might express their frustration over voting fraud or violations of election rules with angry demonstrations that could easily get out of hand.
He was right to worry. As the day wore on, we heard reports of apparent dirty tricks by pro-government forces, allegations that had prompted street protests in Mandalay, Burma’s second-biggest city, and elsewhere. The NLD leaders, who are sensitive to the risks, seem to have successfully defused them. The 2008 constitution contains a clause allowing the army to reassert its authority in the event of civil disturbances, and the leaders of the pro-democracy movement know that they will have to tread carefully if they don’t want to provoke the hardliners into reasserting control.
Not long after I spoke with the politically savvy doctor, I was sitting on the floor in one of the NLD offices on the block, chatting with a young activist who had emerged from jail as part of the big release of political prisoners in mid-January. (We were sitting on the floor because the office has no furniture, an indication of the party’s relative poverty.) He pointed out to me that those freed at the time were not actually granted clemency; the charges against all the ex-prisoners remain in force, and anyone who is judged by the government to have violated the terms of this de facto probation can be instantly re-arrested. Like everyone else, he was excited about the election. (The polls closed as we talked.) But he was also keen to point out that Burma is still a long way from any sort of real democracy.
He was about to continue, but right then a deafening cheer rose up from the street. Everyone jumped to their feet and rushed downstairs. The crowds were swelling now, blocking the thoroughfare. No one seemed to mind the intense, steamy heat. Hundreds of people massed in front of the local polling station, just across the street from the chalk scoreboard. Then came another big cheer, accompanied by frantic applause. No one seemed to know what was going on at first, but soon we figured it out: The election officials in the polling place had started counting the votes, and each time they opened a new box of ballot papers the onlookers outside expressed their enthusiastic approval. In a place like Burma, having a chance to vote for the candidate of your choice is not something to be taken lightly.