- By Mary Casey-Baker<p> Mary Casey-Baker is the editor of Foreign Policy’s Middle East Daily Brief, as well as the assistant director of public affairs at the Project on Middle East Political Science and assistant editor of The Monkey Cage blog for the Washington Post. </p>
An Egyptian court ruled on Wednesday that it would not disqualify the ultraconservative Islamist Hazem Abu Ismail from running in presidential elections at this time. Concerns that the popular Salafist sheikh, one of the race’s frontrunners, would be barred from the contest rose upon evidence that Abu Ismail’s mother had become a U.S. citizen and applied to vote in Los Angeles toward the end of her life. According to Egyptian electoral law, applicants cannot stand for presidential elections if at least one parent or spouse holds foreign nationality. Abu Ismail filed a lawsuit calling for the interior ministry to prove his mother’s U.S. citizenship, which it was unable to do. Thousands of Egyptians rallying outside the courtroom celebrated the verdict. However, the decision is not final and a list of eligible candidates will be released by the national election commission on April 26 ahead of the first round of voting on May 23 and 24. If Abu Ismail is still banned from candidacy, it will likely boost support for his more moderate Islamist competitors Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and Khairat el-Shater, who also faces possible disqualification over a controversial pardon of a conviction under former President Hosni Mubarak.
The 6:00 am deadline for a ceasefire in Syria saw a lull in violence, but what opposition activists deemed an "only partially observed" truce. While there have been limited reports of violence, the Syrian government has failed to comply completely with the United Nations and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s peace plan by refusing to withdraw troops, heavy weaponry, and tanks. The opposition Syrian National Council leader Burhan Ghalioun pushed for intensified Friday protests to "demonstrate even more and put the regime in front of its responsibilities — put the international community in front of its responsibilities." World powers are skeptical that the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assald will hold to the ceasefire considering its poor record on holding to commitments and after it issued statements that the army would stay on alert to combat "terrorists" and will "respond proportionally" to opposition attacks. Meanwhile, the government called for opposition members to turn themselves in, remarking that those who had not killed would be released.
- Bahraini Sunni mobs attacked Shiite villages and businesses in apparent retaliation for a bomb that injured Sunni policemen, increasing controvsery over the upcoming Formula One Bahrain Grand Prix.
- At least 28 more al Qaeda-linked militants have been killed in the city of Lawdar in the southern Yemeni province of Abyan as clashes continue for the third day.
- Ahmed Ben Bella, Algeria’s first president and leader in the struggle for independence from France, died at the age of 95.
Arguments & Analysis
‘A non-nuclear Middle East’ (Akiva Eldar, The National Interest)
"There is another option, which is based on the premise that regional problems require regional solutions. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (or WMDs), and especially the nuclear issue, cannot be separated from other regional issues. I believe the best way to remove the Iranian nuclear threat is through a comprehensive package deal based on a regional agreement on nonproliferation of WMDs and regional peace. This has been Israel’s official policy since the 1970s, when it declared that once all its neighbors come to term with its existence and put an end to the state of war, Israel will support a regional nonproliferation treaty (NPT). This is separate and distinct from the global NPT, which Israel doesn’t trust."
‘If at first Iran says no, try, try again’ (Volker Perthes, New York Times)
"Iran will want to know what it will gain if it agrees to such an approach. The P5-plus-1 group should have a convincing answer, such as identifying which specific American or European sanctions would be suspended should Iran stop its 20 percent enrichment. Simply promising not to impose additional sanctions does not constitute a major incentive. And a total lifting of sanctions is as unlikely today as a full halt of Iranian enrichment activities. The P5-plus-1 negotiators should, however, be prepared to suggest what a final settlement might look like – what assurances and guarantees the international community would need in order to accept an Iranian nuclear program with limited enrichment activities."
‘Draining the hourglass: Iraqi refugees in Jordan’ (Phil Leech, Open Democracy)
"There are approximately half a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan, which means it ranks second behind only Syria (approx. 1.2 million) in terms of total number . Under most circumstances Iraqi refugees are not legally able to work in Jordan and, although officially there is support provided through the United Nations (UNHCR), the practical reality is that most refugees in Amman live without any regular source of income…Most seek to support themselves through informal employment or they depend on support from family members elsewhere. The term in Arabic: al-laaje’ (refugee) actually carries negative connotations. The burden (as it is often described behind closed doors) of Palestinians who were expelled from what is now Israel in 1948, still weighs heavily on governments and the populations of many Middle Eastern states. In these states the presence of refugee communities is often seen from two conflicting perspectives. Simultaneously, they are both regarded as latent (and on occasions, very real) threats to the status quo and yet also as comrades in arms, whom there is a responsibility to protect. This conflict might explain why, in Jordan, Iraqi refugees are commonly referred to as ‘brothers‘ yet at the same time also suffer a variety of social stigmas."