Stephen M. Walt
Will we eventually look back on President Obama’s drop-in visit to Kabul as his "Mission Accomplished" moment? He’s got a tough re-election battle to fight, the endless war in Central Asia isn’t popular, and he wants to remind everyone that he’s The Man Who Got Bin Laden. So he pulled a George W. Bush and ...
Will we eventually look back on President Obama’s drop-in visit to Kabul as his "Mission Accomplished" moment? He’s got a tough re-election battle to fight, the endless war in Central Asia isn’t popular, and he wants to remind everyone that he’s The Man Who Got Bin Laden. So he pulled a George W. Bush and burned up a lot of jet fuel racing to Kabul for a mostly meaningless photo op and a not-very convincing speech. This sort of posturing may help him get re-elected — though I doubt it will have much effect — but it’s not going to help his long-term legacy when the U.S. is finally gone and Central Asia is on its own.
As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I don’t put much value in the new U.S.-Afghan "strategic partnership." It has some symbolic value, I guess, and it can provide a fig leaf for our eventual withdrawal. If everything breaks the right way after 2014, it might even provide a general framework that facilitates some additional counter-terrorist activities. But it’s merely an executive agreement, not a treaty, it is woefully short on specifics, and other people will be in charge in Kabul and Washington by the time the agreement runs out. If circumstances change in ways that give us reasons to renege (or give Afghan leaders grounds to want a different arrangement), this much-ballyhooed "partnership" won’t be worth the pixels it’s published with.
All told, nobody came off very well in this little episode. Presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney sounds both petty and silly trying to minimize Obama’s genuine accomplishments against al Qaeda (and especially the elimination of bin Laden himself). But Obama’s attempt to turn the Afghan debacle into some kind of strategic triumph isn’t much better, as Juan Cole and Ahmed Rashid make clear in separate pieces. All of which is more evidence that our agonizingly long electoral cycle is a major impediment to a smarter foreign policy.
Obama should not forget that the elder President Bush won a far more smashing victory in the 1991 Gulf War than we are going to get in Afghanistan, and he went down to defeat in 1992. It’s still the economy, stupid, and most voters won’t care much about bin Laden’s demise when they go to the polls in November, no matter how often the president reminds them about it between now and then. Needless to say, that is precisely what Romney is counting on.