The protest movement against Omar al-Bashir is growing -- fast -- and it needs the world’s support.
- By Amir Ahmad NasrAmir Ahmad Nasr is a Sudanese writer, digital activist, and social entrepreneur.
The past decade has been a roller-coaster ride for Sudanese citizens. From the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur to the ethnic cleansing campaign targeting the Nuba people to the violent border clashes that accompanied the separation with South Sudan, this nation has witnessed hell. At least 200,000 people have lost their lives and 2 million more have been displaced in Darfur alone, according to conservative U.N. estimates. Hundreds more have died during the recent border clashes between the two Sudans, and thousands have been driven from their homes.
But now there is a glimmer of hope. Daily growing protests against President Omar al-Bashir’s regime are spreading demographically and geographically, along with calls for strikes and civil disobedience. The spark was the government’s June 18 announcement of a new round of austerity measures, including massively unpopular cuts to fuel subsidies. The most dramatic protests have so far occurred in Khartoum’s al-Daim neighborhood, where police used extreme force and obscene amounts of tear gas in an attempt to suppress the demonstrators. In an example of the defiant mood taking over the streets, the protesters responded by burning a police truck.
As the fear barrier crumbles, Sudanese have a chance to topple Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) cronies — and to build a better future for their country.
It is important to understand why Sudanese would risk their lives to oppose Bashir. The narratives peddled by some commentators about the country’s recent conflicts — that they are between "Arabs versus Africans," or "Muslims versus Christians" — are not only unhelpful, they are wrong. These characterizations have neither benefited the international community nor the diverse citizens of Sudan — including the Arabs and Afro-Arabs of the North who felt alienated by it, and who have also been violently oppressed for decades.
John Garang, the late southern Sudanese leader, made a crucial contribution to framing the situation as it actually is: A struggle between Sudan’s diverse population and Omar al-Bashir’s heinous dictatorship, which uses religion and tribalism to divide and control. "The Northerners are suffering too," Garang said in one speech. "This is the problem of governance in Khartoum."
The truth is that regardless of their background, Sudanese are suffering under Bashir’s rule. Just take the case of Safia Ishaq, a member of the nonviolent youth resistance movement Girifna: In 2011, after the small Jan. 30 student-led protests inspired by Egypt and Tunisia, she was arrested for her activism and brutally gang-raped by three officers from Bashir’s National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), the well-financed and notoriously abusive enforcers responsible for suppressing dissent and protecting the ruling party.
It is no secret that Bashir’s Islamist regime, which seized power in a military coup on June 30, 1989, and hosted Osama bin Laden in the early 1990s before kicking him out only under withering international pressure, has a long list of bloody failings. But it just may be the worsening economic situation, which seems to have been the last straw for a growing number of nonideological citizens of Khartoum, that could end his grip on power. The recent austerity cuts have been particularly painful in a country already suffering from inflation that hovers over 30 percent, and which lost more than 70 percent of its oil revenues upon South Sudan’s independence.
The recent demonstrations in Sudan’s capital are different than previous student-led protests. They have been strategically dispersed — relatively small crowds have spread out in numerous locations throughout Khartoum, stretching and exhausting the security forces’ resources. Demonstrations calling for the fall of the regime erupted in university campuses as well as in Wad Nubawi, al-Sajjana, Bahri, Jabra, al-Kalaakla, and Um Badda, among other neighborhoods and areas in the capital.
Unlike in the past, the protests were not just led by students but also by older folks, and Sudanese women and mothers. There were also coordinated protests in other towns and regions throughout Sudan such as Kosti, Sinnar, and the northern parts of the country.
As with neighboring countries, social media and on-the-ground citizen journalism has been absolutely critical in getting important footage, pictures, and stories out to the world. Under the Twitter hashtag #SudanRevolts, Sudanese anti-government, pro-democracy netizens have curated the news coming out of the tightly controlled country while fending off the regime’s "electronic jihad" trolls. This is all the more important because the few available independent media outlets in Sudan are small and heavily suppressed.
Just as deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s regime did in its final days, the Bashir regime is wising up to the subversive power of cyberspace. Sudanese activists and foreign journalists in the country have reported widespread rumors that the Internet in Khartoum could be shut down, or at least significantly slowed down in speed. So far, however, updates continue to flow out of the country.
So far the response by the government, its armed thugs, and the NISS has been predictably brutal. In addition to tear gas and rubber bullets, student activists have reported being attacked by pro-government "militias" intent on breaking up the protests. It will likely get more violent. Yet despite the mass arrests of protesters, including prominent activist Usamah Mohammed Ali, the demonstrations are continuing and intensifying.
The world has long struggled for a solution to the seemingly endless humanitarian disaster in Sudan. The protesters’ victory would represent a way forward. With Bashir and the NCP battered and gone, the door to change will open up in Khartoum — and a new, more responsible government could lead to better policies toward South Sudan and Darfur. Better leadership could bring the kind of peace that will finally ensure economic development in both Sudans — fueled by their bountiful oil reserves — and also open its doors to foreign governments and international oil companies seeking to invest and grow.
It must be understood that the government in Khartoum is not a monolith, but rather a conglomerate of various interest groups: the military, state security, the ruling party, elite businessmen, tribal alliances, the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood, and lately, Salafi groups.
Some groups in this system, especially the business community, are increasingly frustrated by the NCP’s incompetence and staggering corruption, and understand the urgent need for better management. And some calls for change have in fact come openly from within the NCP itself, hinting at tensions within the party.
With the defiance of the street growing, and some indications of the established political opposition parties mobilizing, the tide is shifting against Bashir. What the new Sudan would look like, of course, still remains hazy. But given their history with the Islamists, which in some ways resembles the dismal experience of Iranians, most Sudanese citizens aren’t yearning for more Islamism, but are instead focusing on and demanding better economic conditions, transparency, and accountability.
Although this battle will ultimately be fought and won by Sudanese, the international community also has an important role to play. U.S.-based Sudan advocacy groups can help push for better media coverage of the situation so that protesters on the ground know the world is watching. Pressure could hopefully compel the Qatar-owned Al Jazeera Arabic, which is widely watched in Sudan, to report the demonstrations more adequately, which could shift the psychological dynamic strongly within Khartoum.
As for the U.S government, U.N. envoy Susan Rice can play a constructive role by rallying the world body to focus more attention on the unfolding crisis. And when or if a new Sudanese leadership emerges, both Washington and Khartoum would be better off if Washington used not just sticks, but also carrots — namely, the lifting of economic sanctions, and the normalization of relations — if a new government affirms its basic local and international obligations.
Beijing, a close ally of Khartoum, should appreciate that its long-term interests lie with the Sudanese people and not Bashir’s government, which has helped squander China’s billions of dollars of investments in Sudanese oil — oil that is no longer flowing thanks to the deadlock between Khartoum and Juba.
But at the end of the day, the Sudanese people cannot rely on governments. As those inside the country take to the streets in ever greater numbers, those of us on the outside are doing what we can to bear witness and expose injustice. Let us show solidarity with the protesters in their fight against Bashir, a man wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against his own people.
The Sudanese street has shown its resolve loud and clear. Time is now of the essence, in light of the protests’ building momentum and worsening crackdown. There isn’t a moment to lose: The international community must do its part to help Sudan achieve a better future.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, where he is the director of the Institute for Middle East Studies and of the Project on Middle East Political Science. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He is the author of The Arab Uprising (March 2012, PublicAffairs).
He publishes frequently on the politics of the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Arab media and information technology, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and Islamist movements.| Marc Lynch |