- By Ian Bremmer<p> Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and author of the newly released Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. </p>
By Hani Sabra
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy’s sacking of the intelligence chief and other powerful security figures in the wake of an attack on Egyptian border police gave him some short term credibility. He wisely used that political capital to sideline the two most powerful members of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and cancel amendments to the interim constitution that gave SCAF legislative power. On paper, Morsy is now the most powerful person in Egypt. But claims the move is an important step toward civilian ascendency in Egypt misread both the military’s ongoing strength and the motivations of the SCAF’s new senior members.
A closer look at the firings reveals the limits of Morsy’s power. Remember that Morsy did not elevate junior officers to fill the positions opened up by sacking SCAF head Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and army chief of staff General Sami Enan. His appointments were in fact conservative and he chose other top military men to fill the vacated posts. More importantly, Morsy would never have been able to sideline Enan and Tantawi without the support of other military leaders. That step was the Brotherhood’s greatest tactical success; it was able to build strong enough links with some members of SCAF, exploiting personal differences and opportunism rather than ideology.
Senior members of the military want to benefit financially from their positions and are not a force for secularism as some observers allege. Morsy was able to convince some commanders, such as the new Minister of Defense Abdel Fattah el Sisi, that it would be better for them to tie their fortunes to the Muslim Brotherhood rather than the old guard (Tantawi and Enan were closely associated with Hosni Mubarak’s regime). Morsy will need to nurture these relationships; if they feel threatened, senior officers remain powerful enough to cause the president real problems. As a result, the seesawing battle for ascendancy between the Brotherhood and the military will go on.
Hani Sabra is an analyst in Eurasia Group’s Middle East Practice.
Kevin Baron is a national security reporter for Foreign Policy, covering defense and military issues in Washington. He is also vice president of the Pentagon Press Association. Baron previously was a national security staff writer for National Journal, covering the "business of war." Prior to that, Baron worked in the resident daily Pentagon press corps as a reporter/photographer for Stars and Stripes. For three years with Stripes, Baron covered the building and traveled overseas extensively with the secretary of defense and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, covering official visits to Afghanistan and Iraq, the Middle East and Europe, China, Japan and South Korea, in more than a dozen countries. From 2004 to 2009, Baron was the Boston Globe Washington bureau's investigative projects reporter, covering defense, international affairs, lobbying and other issues. Before that, he muckraked at the Center for Public Integrity. Baron has reported on assignment from Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and the South Pacific. He was won two Polk Awards, among other honors. He has a B.A. in international studies from the University of Richmond and M.A. in media and public affairs from George Washington University. Originally from Orlando, Fla., Baron has lived in the Washington area since 1998 and currently resides in Northern Virginia with his wife, three sons, and the family dog, The Edge.| Dispatch |
David Kenner is the Middle East editor for Foreign Policy.| Passport |