- By Joshua Keating
Joshua Keating is associate editor at Foreign Policy and the editor of the Passport blog. He has worked as a researcher, editorial assistant, and deputy Web editor since joining the FP staff in 2007. In addition to being featured in Foreign Policy, his writing has been published by the Washington Post, Newsweek International, Radio Prague, the Center for Defense Information, and Romania's Adevarul newspaper. He has appeared as a commentator on CNN International, C-Span, ABC News, Al Jazeera, NPR, BBC radio, and others. A native of Brooklyn, New York, he studied comparative politics at Oberlin College.
Last we we noted reports by a Venezuelan doctor who claimed that former Cuban leader Fidel Castro had suffered a major cerebral hemmorage and was near death.
There had been no images released of Castro since March and no public statements since a series of odd koan-like musings on Yoga, trees, and the nature of the universe published in state newspaper Granma in June.
But Castro has reemerged, somewhat, with an article blasting rumors of his ill health as "imperialist propaganda". He goes on to say that he can’t even remember having a headache. Regarding his long and unusual silence in the state media, Castro says only, "it is certainly not my role to occupy the pages of our newspapers." The website CubaDebate also released a series of photos of Castro puttering in a garden, including one above showing him with a current issue of Granma.
So, it appears the doctor’s report was another false alarm. Although, when a government is reduced to employing the same method kidnappers use to show that hostages are still alive in order to demonstrate the health of their former leader and political figurehead, it’s not a good sign.
It’s worth giving a read, if you haven’t already, to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith’s recent article on why leaders conceal evidence of ill health:
For heads of state, there’s also an inherent tension between maintaining good health and revealing to cronies or the public that all is not well. The difficulty, especially in autocratic systems, is that medical care can only be sought at the risk to one’s hold on power — a risk worth taking only in extremis. After all, "loyal" backers — even family members — remain loyal only as long as their leader can be expected to continue to deliver power and money to them. Once the grim facts come to light, the inner circle begins to shop around, looking to curry favor with a likely successor. … Any leader worth his salt must keep terminal illnesses hidden from public view as best as possible. Terminal illness or even extreme old age, which is after all, the most terminal of illnesses, are excellent indicators that the beloved leader won’t be reliable for long. Then the view is: Out with the old, in with the new.
Supporters know that their leader, no matter how generous and beloved, simply cannot deliver from beyond the grave. Once their privileges and perks are in jeopardy, the inner circle looks for its next meal ticket.
Of course, in Cuba’s case, the inner circle who might be scheming to take power aren’t much more spry than Fidel and Raul.