Fact-checking a decade's worth of the president's big speech.
- By Daniel W. Drezner
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a senior editor at The National Interest. Prior to Fletcher, he taught at the University of Chicago and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Drezner has received fellowships from the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Harvard University. He has previously held positions with Civic Education Project, the RAND Corporation, and the Treasury Department.
As U.S. President Barack Obama prepares to deliver his fourth State of the Union address this Tuesday, it’s worth commemorating the 10th anniversary of George W. Bush’s infamous 2003 SOTU. In that address, Bush’s "16 words" about Saddam Hussein pursuing Nigerien yellowcake led to ex post critical op-eds, which led to the politically motivated leaks, which led to the outing of covert operatives, which led to the prosecution of White House officials, which led to controversial presidential commutations, which ultimately led to book deals, Vanity Fair spreads, and movies starring Naomi Watts.
Nothing else said in the past decade’s worth of State of the Union addresses has led to anything so extreme (or, insofar as Naomi Watts is concerned, as lovely), but it got us to thinking. It would be hard to prove that Bush knew he was distorting the truth when he uttered those 16 words. What other foreign or economic policy lulus did Bush and Obama say in their previous SOTUs? After a quick review, I was able to find at least two major whoppers in every State of the Union address in the past decade. Let’s go to the archives!
1. "The men and women of Afghanistan are building a nation that is free and proud and fighting terror."
According to the Freedom House’s 2013 Index, Afghanistan is rated as "not free." And according to Vision of Humanity’s Global Terrorism Index, in 2012 Afghanistan ranked 3rd out of 158 countries in terrorist attacks. If Afghanistan is fighting terror, it’s not doing a very good job of it.
2. "Already, the Kay report identified dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations. Had we failed to act, the dictator’s weapons of mass destruction programs would continue to this day."
Bush was citing the Iraq Survey Group’s October 2003 interim report. In the end, David Kay resigned from the Iraq Study Group after concluding that "we were almost all wrong" in Senate testimony. The Duelfer Report concluded that Saddam Hussein had in fact abandoned all WMD programs after the end of the 1991 Gulf War. Oops.
1. "It is time for an immigration policy that permits temporary guest workers to fill jobs Americans will not take, that rejects amnesty, that tells us who is entering and leaving our country and that closes the border to drug dealers and terrorists."
Eight years later, maybe — maybe — Bush’s sense of urgency will be realized.
2. "The beginnings of reform and democracy in the Palestinian territories are now showing the power of freedom to break old patterns of violence and failure."
At the insistence of the Bush administration — and despite warnings from both Israeli and moderate Palestinian politicians — elections were held in the Palestinian territories a year later, leading to a surprise victory for Hamas. Bush’s freedom agenda wasn’t vocalized so much after that.
1. "We’re on the offensive in Iraq, with a clear plan for victory…. I am confident in our plan for victory. I am confident in the will of the Iraqi people. I am confident in the skill and spirit of our military. Fellow citizens, we are in this fight to win, and we are winning.
By December of 2006, the Iraq Study Group determined that the military situation on the ground in Iraq was "grave and deteriorating."The worsening situation on the ground helped trigger a landslide Democratic victory in November 2006, and eventually required a radical rethinking of counterinsurgency operations, leading to the "surge." Indeed, in his 2007 SOTU, Bush would detail at quite some length the worsening situation in Iraq.
2. "The Palestinian people have voted in elections. And now the leaders of Hamas must recognize Israel, disarm, reject terrorism and work for lasting peace."
1. "In the coming weeks, I will submit a budget that eliminates the federal deficit within the next five years. I ask you to make the same commitment. Together, we can restrain the spending appetite of the federal government and we can balance the federal budget."
You can insert your own fiscal joke here.
2. "Iraq’s leaders have committed themselves to a series of benchmarks to achieve reconciliation: to share oil revenues among all of Iraq’s citizens, to put the wealth of Iraq into the rebuilding of Iraq, to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation’s civic life, to hold local elections and to take responsibility for security in every Iraqi province."
It’s worth remembering that the primary purpose of the surge was to give Iraqi politicians the space to achieve political reconciliation. While U.S. forces managed to achieve significant military successes, it would be hard to argue that Iraq’s leaders achieved any of these commitments.
1. Next week, I’ll send you a budget that terminates or substantially reduces 151 wasteful or bloated programs, totaling more than $18 billion. The budget that I will submit will keep America on track for a surplus in 2012."
In the fiscal year 2012, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the United States had a federal budget deficit of more than$1 trillion.
2. "We’re working for a successful Doha Round of trade talks, and we must complete a good agreement this year."
The Doha Round is as dead as a doornail, and Bush’s last trade representative recommended proclaiming it as such three years after this SOTU.
1. "I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assistance they receive, and this time, they will have to clearly demonstrate how taxpayer dollars result in more lending for the American taxpayer. This time, CEOs won’t be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet."
AIG, which received more than $180 billion in government money, nevertheless paid out substantial bonuses to top corporate officials later in 2009.
2. "To overcome extremism, we must also be vigilant in upholding the values our troops defend –because there is no force in the world more powerful than the example of America. That is why I have ordered the closing of the detention center at Guantanamo Bay…"
Gitmo remains open to this day.
1. "Rather than fight the same tired battles that have dominated Washington for decades, it’s time to try something new."
Again, insert your own joke here.
2. "We have gone from a bystander to a leader in the fight against climate change."
Three years later, even supporters of the Obama administration acknowledge that not much was accomplished in the first term on climate-change policy.
1. "Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we would beat them to the moon. The science wasn’t even there yet. NASA didn’t exist. But after investing in better research and education, we didn’t just surpass the Soviets; we unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs. This is our generation’s Sputnik moment."
Google Trends suggest that if there was a "Sputnik moment," it came and passed very quickly.
2. "In the coming year, we’ll also work to rebuild people’s faith in the institution of government."
Gallup data suggests that President Obama did not succeed in that task in 2011. To be fair, Congress certainly helped.
1. "[In the Middle East] we will stand against violence and intimidation. We will stand for the rights and dignity of all human beings –men and women; Christians, Muslims, and Jews. We will support policies that lead to strong and stable democracies and open markets, because tyranny is no match for liberty. And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests."
One would be hard-pressed to describe the administration’s Syria policy as standing "against violence and intimidation," or its performance in Benghazi as protecting "America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens."
2. "[A]nyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned doesn’t know what they’re talking about."
The Pew Global Attitudes project suggests that either a lot of the world doesn’t know what they’re talking about, or that President Obama was wrong.
Let’s see what he’s got cooked up for us this year….