Stephen M. Walt
Two states for two peoples: the sequel
President Obama is about to leave for the Middle East — including his first trip to Israel as president — and he’s getting the usual advice from all corners on what to do while he’s there. Here are a few things you might want to read and a comment you may want to ponder. You ...
President Obama is about to leave for the Middle East — including his first trip to Israel as president — and he’s getting the usual advice from all corners on what to do while he’s there. Here are a few things you might want to read and a comment you may want to ponder.
You can start with Ben Birnbaum’s piece in the New Republic on the disappearing two-state solution. It’s well-reported, fair-minded, and certainly won’t make you optimistic about the prospects for a deal. Birnbaum can’t quite admit that the 2SS might be dead already, and its worth remembering that a peace process that is always on life support but never really ends gives Israel the diplomatic cover to keep expanding control over the West Bank. Nonetheless, it is an intelligent and sobering piece, and its publication in the post-Peretz TNR is significant in itself.
Then, follow that up by re-reading the Boston Study Group’s Two States for Two Peoples: If not now, when?, along with a new introduction, available here. The Boston Study Group is an informal collective of colleagues with extensive background on these issues, and I’ve been privileged to be a member of the group for the past several years. The new introduction reminds Obama that he has a chance to reinvigorate the quest for peace and urges him to take the leap. I’m not optimistic that he will, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong in this case.
Finally, take a quick look at Jerry Haber’s discussion of "Who is a Liberal Zionist?" available at Open Zion and Jerry’s own blog. It’s a fascinating discussion of the tensions between liberal values and Zionism, and he nicely skewers the contradictions common to many liberal Zionists. His analysis will be all the more relevant if the two-state solution ultimately fails and the world ends up with some sort of de facto one-state outcome, which is where we are headed if there is no change of course.
And now my comment. Obama’s trip is bound to generate more discussion about how to get the peace process started again, along with the usual back-and-forths about which side is more responsible for the current impasse and the familiar debates about what an appropriate solution might be. And a lot of defenders of Israel will repeatedly remind us that they oppose the occupation and are in favor of two states.
But here’s the litmus test you should use: How many of them are in favor of the United States using the leverage at its disposal to bring the occupation to an end and obtain a two-state outcome? In other words, how many of them favor the United States using both carrots and sticks with both sides in order to achieve the outcome that they claim to favor? How many of them would openly back Obama if he did just that? The United States has steadfastly refused to use its leverage evenhandedly in the past, and the result after twenty-plus years of "peace processing" has been abject failure. Not only is failure bad for Israelis and Palestinians alike, it doesn’t exactly do wonders for America’s credibility as an effective mediator. Yet you rarely hear advocates of a two-state solution calling for the U.S. to try a different approach.
And don’t forget that the Palestinians are already under tremendous pressure — stateless, under occupation, dependent on outside aid, and watching the territory in dispute disappear as settlements expand. At this point, there’s little to be gained by squeezing them even harder. If you genuinely believe in "two states for two peoples," then you ought to be openly calling for the United States to act like a true global power and knock some heads together. And anyone who claims to oppose the occupation and support the 2SS while insisting that the United States must back Israel no matter what it does is either delusional or disingenuous.
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