Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has called for a "march of anger" two days after an estimated 638 people were killed and thousands injured when security forces cleared two protest camps in Cairo. Supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi are expected to gather in 28 locations in Cairo including Ramses Square after noon prayers on Friday. There are heightened concerns of further violence as security forces have been authorized to use live ammunition in self-defense and to protect public institutions. Cairo and several Egyptian provinces are under a state of emergency, and the army has been deployed to protect "important and vital facilities." Protesters set fire to a government building in Cairo on Thursday. U.S. President Barack Obama canceled military exercises planned with Egypt and said "our traditional cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed in the streets and rights are being rolled back." However he stopped short of suspending the estimated $1.5 billion in predominantly military assistance to Egypt. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he called Egypt’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Thursday saying the United States would maintain its military relationship with Egypt but warned that the violent crackdown was putting defense cooperation at risk. Also on Thursday, some European officials called for the suspension of EU aid to Egypt, and Denmark cut off assistance. On Friday, French President François Hollande consulted with Britain and Germany on the escalating political crisis.
Anti-tank guided missiles recently supplied by Saudi Arabia are boosting rebel positions in southern Syria. Opposition fighters reportedly used the Russia-designed Konkurs anti-tank weapons in an assault on the Syrian army in Daraa as well as near the rebel stronghold of Laja. According to some experts, the recent arms deliveries may signal the beginning of a major supply line, headed by Saudi Arabia, into southern Syria. Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department is converting a warehouse on the outskirts of the Jordanian capital of Amman into a military operations center, Centcom Forward-Jordan, in order to coordinate support for the Jordanian military. The move comes as Jordan copes with a soaring refugee crisis from the Syrian civil war and as concerns of cross-border spillover increase. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin E. Dempsey, said the mission is to show Jordanians "that they can count on us to continue to be their partner." He continued, "We are at our best when we can actually shape events and prevent conflict." Thousands of Syrian refugees flowed into the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq on Thursday, crossing a new pontoon bridge over the Tigris River. According to the United Nations, between 5,000 and 7,000 refugees followed an initial group of about 750 people, adding to the over 150,000 Syrian refugees already registered in Iraq.
- A car bombing killed up to 24 people in the Hezbollah stronghold of the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital Beirut Thursday, in an attack believed to be linked to the Syrian conflict, and claimed by a previously unknown group "Brigade of Aisha."
- After four days of debate Iran’s Parliament approved 15 of President Hassan Rowhani’s proposed cabinet ministers Thursday, but rejected three of his nominees accused of ties to the Green Movement.
Arguments and Analysis
‘It Only Gets Worse from Here‘ (Issandr El Amrani, The Arabist)
"You could ask a thousand questions about the violence that has shaken Egypt, from why police decided to move now against Islamist sit-ins and with such brutality after making so much of its careful planning in the last week, to whether the attacks on churches and Christians more generally that erupted in reaction are part of a pre-planned reaction or the uncontrollable sectarian direction political tensions take in moments of crisis. But the question that really bothers me is whether this escalation is planned to create a situation that will inevitably trigger more violence — that this is the desired goal.
The fundamental flaw of the July 3 coup, and the reason those demonstrators that came out on June 30 against the Morsi administration were wrong to welcome it, is that it was based on an illusion. That illusion, at least among the liberal camp which is getting so much flak these days, was that even a partial return of the old army-led order could offer a chance to reboot the transition that took such a wrong turn after the fall of Hosni Mubarak on February 11, 2011. This camp believed that gradual reform, even of a much less ambitious nature than they desired in 2011, would be more likely to come by accommodating the old order than by allowing what they perceived as an arrangement between the military and the Islamists to continue. Better to focus on fixing the country, notably its economy, and preventing Morsi from sinking it altogether, and take the risk that part of the old order could come back."
"Despite the mistakes committed by former president Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood over the past year in Egypt, and despite the incitement and violence demonstrated by some Brotherhood supporters yesterday, the killing of hundreds of protesters carried out by the Egyptian military government was unnecessary, unjustified, and in contravention of international human rights standards. These events demand a shift in U.S. policy that is urgent and long overdue. We agree with President Barack Obama’s decision to cancel the Bright Star joint military exercise, with his condemnation of violence against civilians, with his emphasis on the need for the Egyptian government to respect the human rights of all its citizens, and with his call for positive steps towards reconciliation.
However, the president’s failure to suspend aid to the Egyptian military is a strategic error that undercuts those objectives and weakens U.S. credibility, after repeated calls by the U.S. administration for Egyptian authorities to avoid bloodshed have been disregarded. Whatever President Obama may say about U.S. support for democratic values in Egypt, continued U.S. aid sends a signal to the Egyptian military — and to the world — that the United States condones the Egyptian leadership’s actions. The continuation of aid removes a source of meaningful international pressure that could help to forestall future atrocities and prevent further steps toward consolidation of an undemocratic system in Egypt."
‘America the Omnipotent‘ (Hussein Ibish, Ibishblog)
"Arab anti-Americanism rests on two pillars: disillusionment and perceived betrayal by an ideal, combined with a wild overestimation of American power. Arabs therefore oscillate between yearning for American leadership and resenting its clout.
Contrast the ubiquitous, and normatively negative, Arab sentiments towards the United States with an almost total disinterest in the role of Russia. Yet if there is an external power up to no good in the Middle East, it is Russia. Its wholehearted support for the Syrian dictatorship helped kill at least 100,000 people in the past two years.
But there is no unrequited love affair with Russia. No sense of betrayal. No feeling of an abandoned ideal or love-hate neurosis. That Russia does what’s in its interests is simply accepted with a shrug. The dearth of conspiracy theories about the Kremlin’s machinations — especially compared to the plethora of bizarre fantasies attributed to the White House — reveals Arab anti-Americanism to be a collective neurotic symptom, fundamentally disconnected from reality.
Of course anti-Americanism is consciously and cynically abused in much Arab political rhetoric. It’s too easy a tool of manipulation for unscrupulous demagogues to pass up. And it works, all too often and all too well. Indeed, it’s so pervasive and visceral that it most closely resembles the rage of a jilted lover."
–Mary Casey & Joshua Haber
David Kenner is the Middle East editor for Foreign Policy.| Passport |