And, if so, is it even worth keeping?
- By Aaron David MillerAaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He is the author of The End of Greatness: Why America Can't Have (and Doesn't Want) Another Great President.
A week or so ago, I found myself sitting on a panel about Iran with Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud and Israel analyst and former Mossad officer, Yossi Alpher.
If F. Scott Fitzgerald was right that the mark of the sophisticated mind is the ability to reconcile the yes and the no, he should have been there to see this. The Israeli-Saudi exchanges were fascinating, cordial, edgy, and quite instructive. There was some real push and pull on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but clearly a common view on the danger and challenge posed by Iran.
As a historian by training though not by trade, the Israeli-Saudi conversation started me thinking about these two U.S. allies — how they agreed and disagreed with one another and we with them. But most of all I was reminded how primary they both have been and still are to America’s successes and failures in the Middle East.
During the 1940s when the United States was first getting its feet wet in the Middle East (and its oil), Washington developed very special, though very different, relationships with Riyadh and Jerusalem, roughly about the same time. The first with Saudi Arabia was driven largely by the growing importance of oil in the wake of World War II and the European recovery. Nothing was more emblematic of that emerging relationship than the famous meeting between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abd Al-Aziz on Great Bitter Lake in February 1945. And while Roosevelt was likely as enamored by kings and the romance of distant and exotic lands as he was by Middle East strategy, the basis would be laid for a strategic relationship lubricated by Saudi oil in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and military, technological, and economic support for the kingdom.
A more complex mix of moral, humanitarian, and domestic political concerns would drive U.S. support for the creation of a Jewish state in the wake of the Nazi Holocaust. And a bit of realpolitik too. By the spring of 1948 — with the newly created State of Israel coming into being — President Harry Truman saw merits in adviser Clark Clifford’s arguments that the Russians were poised to recognize Israel and that Washington shouldn’t worry much about Abd al-Aziz’s reaction. The Saudis, he argued, had nowhere else to sell their oil and no one else to help them develop it. Clifford turned out to be right, for the most part. Indeed with rare exceptions, notably the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the United States has succeeded in keeping oil and Palestine quite separate.
Over the years, these two special relationships would continue to develop, mature, and to define much about U.S. policy in the region. Indeed, of the three original reasons for America’s involvement in the Middle East — the Cold War, oil, and Israel — only the last two really continue to shape U.S. policy. Regardless of differences between the United States and these two strange Middle East bedfellows, what binds the bilateral ties has been stronger than what divides them. And this is likely to continue. To bring Mark Twain into the argument, rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. More than likely they’re here to stay. And here’s why.
Stability, Stability, Stability
It is the cruelest of ironies that with all of the promise of the Arab Spring and its tropes of democratization, gender equality, freedom of conscience, and the like, it is the authoritarian kings, Saudi Arabia in particular — the anti-force to all of these values — that have survived largely untouched. And this administration and its predecessor — for all the talk of the Freedom Agenda and being on the right side of history — still values stability as the paramount virtue. The Saudis don’t want an Arab Spring in Riyadh. And neither does Washington.
Sure, there are tensions in the relationship, and yes the oil-for-security tradeoff has been weakened. But billions in arms sales and oil technology, the U.S. commitment to Gulf security, and bases and prepositioning in Gulf Cooperation Council countries nearby continue to drive the importance of this relationship. Whatever doubts the Saudis have about U.S. reliability, should Iran or anyone else threaten the kingdom they won’t be calling Moscow or Beijing first for help.
As for the U.S.-Israel relationship, the character of that bond remains as durable as ever. It’s in the broadest conception of the American national interest to support likeminded democracies and that value affinity remains the bulwark of the relationship. Just take a look at the March 2013 Gallup poll revealing that public support for Israel is at an all-time high. Since the Arab Spring, that bond has only strengthened as Israel’s Arab neighbors have melted down — driving spikes in violence, anti-American sentiment, and anti-Semitic rhetoric.
The fact remains that Israel’s best talking points in Washington in defense of a strong relationship remain the Arab instability and dysfunction that mark their neighborhood. It would take a fundamental change in America’s image of Israel to break that bond. And part of that change would require a Sadat-like Arab leader to make the case in a way that few Arab leaders have ever done, at least since the death of Jordan’s King Hussein.
The bizarre axis of common enemies
No two countries could be more fundamentally different in character, history, religious affiliation, political system, and culture than Israel and Saudi Arabia. The old joke that when the Jews left Egypt Moses should have turned right instead of left and everything might have been different puts the matter in perspective. That the United States has managed to maintain these relationships and benefit from them without much conflict given the differences between them is as much a result of basic Saudi and Israeli needs as it was American diplomatic creativity and skill.
Still, rarely, if ever it seems have Israeli and Saudi interests seemed to converge as closely as they do now, leaving the United States on certain issues the odd man out. Of course, there are major differences over the pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace. But on issues relating to Egypt (where Riyadh and Jerusalem welcome the military’s return), and Iran (where both fear a nuclear Tehran) it may well be that this informal Jerusalem-Riyadh axis carries more influence than one may think, particularly on the Iranian nuclear issue. The United States will be hard-pressed to do a deal with Iran that leaves two of its last remaining Middle East allies angry, aggrieved, and fundamentally left doubting America’s will and power. And so most likely, despite Saudi and Israeli fears, Washington probably won’t be forced to accept its own stated slogan that no deal is better than a bad one. Two allies in hand is worth one very problematic potential frenemy in the proverbial bush.
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But that leaves us with a big question: are these special relationships even good for Washington anymore? The argument has been made for years that the United States is too subservient to Israel and too addicted to Saudi oil. Why not reduce its dependence on these two and make new friends? How about Turkey? Maybe even Iran? Surely, building these relationships would help the United States be seen as more credible around the region. One could argue it would also allow it greater freedom of action to protect its interests.
There’s no doubt that maintaining close ties with the specials come with liabilities. Washington is directly linked to supporting or acquiescing in Israeli policies toward the Palestinians and other Arabs that engender rage, and support for the Saudi monarchy makes a mockery of U.S. principles of democracy and respect for human rights.
But for seven decades now, the advantages of these relationships have also made America relevant and influential in a very tough region. In war and in peace, these relationships have proved invaluable. When Saddam invaded Kuwait, the Saudis offered vital staging areas and Arab cover to enable the United States to push him out. And without the U.S. relationship with Israel, there would have been no Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty and likely no chance of an Israel-Palestine peace agreement today either.
But the U.S.-Israel relationship is supposed to be special — not exclusive. And America is still too dependent on Saudi oil and not nearly tough in pushing the kingdom to stop funding jihadi groups and Wahabbi ideology.
Yet today, especially, when Washington lacks a reliable Arab partner, when it can’t seem to make up its mind as to whether Egypt is a friend or adversary, Israel and Saudi Arabia are critically important. There are clear differences in these bilateral ties; but these really do pale compared with the convergence. If the White House wants to manage the Iran nuclear issue or push the Israel-Palestine peace process forward or keep trying to find a solution for Syria, it needs their help. With friends like these, many critics of the special relationships argue, who needs adversaries? But the critics tend to see the world as they want they want it to be, not the way it is. But with diminished U.S. influence and perhaps even a reduced role in the region, can beggars be choosers? Who else are we really going to rely on? This really isn’t Lehman Brothers. We have them; and they’re too big to fail.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a senior editor at The National Interest. Prior to Fletcher, he taught at the University of Chicago and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Drezner has received fellowships from the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Harvard University. He has previously held positions with Civic Education Project, the RAND Corporation, and the Treasury Department.| Daniel W. Drezner |