About that flypaper hypothesis

Mickey Kaus links to a lot of blogosphere and op-ed commentary touting the “flypaper” thesis of Austin Bay and David Warren. The thumbnail version of the argument (from Warren): While engaged in the very difficult business of building a democracy in Iraq — the first democracy, should it succeed, in the entire history of the ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

Mickey Kaus links to a lot of blogosphere and op-ed commentary touting the "flypaper" thesis of Austin Bay and David Warren. The thumbnail version of the argument (from Warren):

Mickey Kaus links to a lot of blogosphere and op-ed commentary touting the “flypaper” thesis of Austin Bay and David Warren. The thumbnail version of the argument (from Warren):

While engaged in the very difficult business of building a democracy in Iraq — the first democracy, should it succeed, in the entire history of the Arabs — President Bush has also, quite consciously to my information, created a new playground for the enemy, away from Israel, and even farther away from the United States itself. By the very act of proving this lower ground, he drains terrorist resources from other swamps.

Kaus observes:

It seems only yesterday that the “flypaper” theory of U.S. strategy in Iraq was a tiny little meme-speck on the horizon…. Today, it’s perilously close to Conventional Wisdom status

The thing is, I don’t buy it. In terms of the broader neocon vision of transforming the Middle East, Iraq needs to be an oasis of stability, not a grand opening for Terrorists ‘R Us. [But what about Josh Marshall’s theory that the neocons want greater instability as an excuse for greater U.S. intervention?–ed. If Marshall was correct, then the last thing the administration would want is for destabilizing elements to leave their home countries and go to Iraq. That would make it harder, not easier, to justify U.S. incursions elsewhere in the region.] There’s also this little nugget of information contained within today’s Los Angeles Times story regarding the U.S. decision to seek another U.N. Security Council resolution in Iraq:

One possible compromise between the United States and other Security Council members would establish a separate contingent of UN forces that would report to a UN command structure and provide security for humanitarian missions and some reconstruction efforts. This might satisfy countries that want to help but don’t want their soldiers under U.S. command. Washington also hopes the resolution will call on Iraq’s neighbors, particularly Iran and Syria, to block the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq, according to diplomats in Washington. The influx of foreign forces has become a leading U.S. security concern. (emphasis added)

If the flypaper hypothesis is correct, then why would the administration be so concerned about border protection? Maybe the LA Times sources are way off (nothing like this appeared in either the NYT or WaPo stories), but if they’re right, then either the flypaper thesis is a load of bulls@#t, or the Bush administration underestimated how sticky the Iraq flypaper has turned out to be.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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