What is Al Qaeda’s strategy?
The bombings in Istanbul are being cited as evidence of Al Qaeda’s growing strength, and as part of an innovative geopolitical strategy: The attacks appeared aimed at disrupting the pro-Western secular axis many people in the Middle East believe the United States and Britain are trying to drive through the region with Iraq war. Such ...
The bombings in Istanbul are being cited as evidence of Al Qaeda's growing strength, and as part of an innovative geopolitical strategy:
The bombings in Istanbul are being cited as evidence of Al Qaeda’s growing strength, and as part of an innovative geopolitical strategy:
The attacks appeared aimed at disrupting the pro-Western secular axis many people in the Middle East believe the United States and Britain are trying to drive through the region with Iraq war. Such an axis would create a swath of territory friendly to the West from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.
Well, then, color me confused – how do these attacks do anything but strengthen this axis? Andrew Sullivan phrases it nicely:
What exactly is the strategy behind going after Turkey and Saudi Arabia? We know the motivation – they despise Turkey’s secular form of government and they loathe Saudi Arabia’s connections to the West. But doesn’t this strike you as spectacularly dumb from a strategic point of view? They have only helped make the West’s case to the Saudis – that they cannot ignore this threat and certainly cannot buy it off. They may well alienate Turkey’s Muslim population. And by murdering Brits, they have hopelessly undercut the anti-Western demonstrations in London…. Perhaps al Qaeda is now so disorganized that it is practically incapable of any intelligent strategy. Either way, these terrible murders are indicators of something worth noting: the enemy may be falling apart. This may make it more dangerous in the short term. But it bodes well for eventual victory.
What seems clear is that over the past year:
1) There have been no terrorist attacks on Western soil (i.e., the European Union and the Western Hemisphere). 2) There has been an increase in violent attacks in the Middle East. 3) Many of these attacks seem designed at Western ex-pats (or Jews) living in the region. 4) These bombings have been plagued by faulty intelligence and unbelievably high collateral damage.
Of course, this assessment could change with one spectacular attack. However, at the moment, Al Qaeda seems to be incapable of doing anything except kill large numbers of Muslims. Developing….
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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