The bargaining strength of weak leaders

Over the weekend, there was good news out of South Asia: In pursuit of peace with India, Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is prepared to abandon his country’s 50-year quest for a U.N.-mandated referendum on the future of the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir, according to an interview published Thursday. Musharraf’s conditional offer to put the referendum “aside” is the latest in a series of recent peace overtures between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, which have fought three wars — two of them over Kashmir — and nearly fought another one last year. Last month, India and Pakistan agreed on a cease-fire in Kashmir, and the Indian prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is due here next month for a regional summit that Pakistani officials hope will pave the way for formal peace negotiations.

This offer was received warmly by both India and the United States. Two days later, Inidia and Pakistan agreed to resume coordinated border patrols. Now, any progress in stabilizing relations between two nuclear powers who have fought three wars over the past fivty years is a good thing. The fact that Pakistan has been the country to compromise appears to be even more promising. Until we get to today’s New York Times story on Pakistan and nuclear proliferation:

A lengthy investigation of the father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, by American and European intelligence agencies and international nuclear inspectors has forced Pakistani officials to question his aides and openly confront evidence that the country was the source of crucial technology to enrich uranium for Iran, North Korea and possibly other nations. Until the past few weeks, Pakistani officials had denied evidence that the A. Q. Khan Research Laboratories, named for the man considered a national hero, had ever been a source of weapons technology to countries aspiring to acquire fissile material. Now they are backing away from those denials, while insisting that there has been no transfer of nuclear technology since President Pervez Musharraf took power four years ago. Dr. Khan, a metallurgist who was charged with stealing European designs for enriching uranium a quarter century ago, has not yet been questioned. American and European officials say he is the centerpiece of their investigation, but that General Musharraf’s government has been reluctant to take him on because of his status and deep ties to the country’s military and intelligence services. A senior Pakistani official said in an interview that “any individual who is found associated with anything suspicious would be under investigation,” and promised a sweeping inquiry…. Until the past few weeks, Pakistani officials had denied evidence that the A. Q. Khan Research Laboratories, named for the man considered a national hero, had ever been a source of weapons technology to countries aspiring to acquire fissile material. Now they are backing away from those denials, while insisting that there has been no transfer of nuclear technology since President Pervez Musharraf took power four years ago. Dr. Khan, a metallurgist who was charged with stealing European designs for enriching uranium a quarter century ago, has not yet been questioned. American and European officials say he is the centerpiece of their investigation, but that General Musharraf’s government has been reluctant to take him on because of his status and deep ties to the country’s military and intelligence services. A senior Pakistani official said in an interview that “any individual who is found associated with anything suspicious would be under investigation,” and promised a sweeping inquiry…. While General Musharraf was responsible for sidelining Dr. Khan nearly three years ago, he has also praised him. When the nuclear and military establishments of Pakistan gathered for a formal dinner early in 2001 to honor Dr. Khan’s retirement, General Musharraf described him this way, according to a transcript of his speech in a Pakistani archive: “Dr. Khan and his team toiled and sweated, day and night, against all odds and obstacles, against international sanctions and sting operations, to create, literally out of nothing, with their bare hands, the pride of Pakistan’s nuclear capability.”

I’d love to say that the U.S. response should be to appply as much coercive pressure on Musharraf as possible — but I can’t. Musharraf is probably the best the U.S. could hope for in a cooperative Pakistani leader. His grip on power is far from certain. Because he’s so weak, he can resist Western pressure to punish Khan. I’m happy to entertain suggestions of how to deal with this problem. UPDATE: The Financial Times reports that Khan is now free to travel within Pakistan — and the United States is OK with it:

Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, was free to travel within the country after being questioned by the government over the alleged transfer of nuclear technology from Pakistan to other states such as Iran and North Korea, senior officials in Islamabad said on Tuesday. Pakistani officials were reassured by senior US officials saying publicly that the allegations were not connected to any current technological co-operation. In Washington, Scott McClellan the White house spokesman said: “That is the past. And for a variety of reasons, I’m not in a position to discuss those matters,” adding that “Let me talk to the present. President Musharraf has assured us there are not any transfers of WMD-related technologies or know-how going on in the present time.”