Could Bush win New York?

I doubt even diehard Republicans would answer this question with a “Yes.” Today, however, I saw this Associated Press story: Howard Dean has moved out to at least a 2-1 lead in New York over his chief rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, while President Bush’s popularity has rebounded in the heavily Democratic state, a ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

I doubt even diehard Republicans would answer this question with a "Yes." Today, however, I saw this Associated Press story:

I doubt even diehard Republicans would answer this question with a “Yes.” Today, however, I saw this Associated Press story:

Howard Dean has moved out to at least a 2-1 lead in New York over his chief rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, while President Bush’s popularity has rebounded in the heavily Democratic state, a statewide poll reported Tuesday…. [T]he new poll also found that Republican Bush appears to be a viable option for New York voters in a state where Democrats have a 5-3 enrollment advantage over Republicans. Among all registered New York voters sampled, 34 percent said they would definitely vote for the incumbent president in this year’s election while 36 percent said they would definitely vote against him. Thirty percent were undecided. A September poll from the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based institute had found 32 percent of voters planned to vote for Bush and 48 percent planned to vote against him. The improvement for Bush’s standing in New York was also evident in his job approval rating _ 52 percent in the new poll and 44 percent in the September poll.

Part of this might be due to a greater (thought hardly overwhelming) willingness for Jews to vote for Bush. Over at Volokh, David Bernstein has an interesting post on the subject. It’s still a long way to November, though. UPDATE: Stephen Green has more on the New York question here and here. Meanwhile a Chicago Tribune poll shows a similar trend for Bush in Illinois — particularly if Dean is the opponent. The usual caveat (it’s still damn early) applies.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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