My final thoughts on Iowa

The latest Des Moines Register poll has the following results: Kerry, 26%; Edwards, 23%; Dean, 20%; Gephardt, 18%. The latest Zogby tracking poll: Kerry, 24%; Dean, 23%; Gephardt, 19%; Edwards, 18%. So what’s going to happen tomorrow night? Roger L. Simon dared me to make a prediction. I’ve had really bad luck at making predictions — so with that said, here goes: The short prediction: Kerry wins in Iowa, but Edwards gets the biggest boost. The long prediction: The media story is that polls don’t matter because of the way the caucus structure is organized. What really matters is turnout and organization. This hurts Edwards, who is presumed to have the weakest infrastructure, and helps Dean, who’s decentralized organization awed everyone a few months ago. What’s striking to me is that Kerry and Edwards are surging, and that they also have the lowest unfavorable ratings. In part this is because Dean and Gephardt are still bashing each other (As I’m typing this, I’m watching Gephardt on Meet the Press, and he’s still bashing Dean). The polls both show Kerry ahead and trending in the right direction — though Tom Schaller makes some excellent arguments at DailyKos for why the poll numbers might be underestimating Dean’s strength. As for ground strength, Michael Crowley makes the case that Kerry’s operation on the ground is pretty strong. The media seem to feel that Edwards will suffer because his organization on the ground is weaker than the other three candidates, so he’ll get fewer delegates and lose the perceptions contest. However, because the race is so close, interest and turnout should be extremely high. This brings in people who are outside of any campaign’s organizational apparatus, who are likely to be more moderate, and who will react to the candidate that seems to be the most likeable — which I’m thinking will help Edwards. The Boston Globe thinks this will matter a great deal in second rounds of the caucus:

Inside the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night, John Edwards may end up attracting a disproportionate share of those voters who are forced to pick a second choice under the quirky election rules, political specialists and likely caucusgoers said…. The lack of negative associations could help mitigate the deficit in organizational support Edwards has in some precincts, said James McCormick, chairman of the political science department at Iowa State University. McCormick said because second-choice voters will not think of Edwards as the enemy of their first choice, they might instead focus on his image as an optimistic alternative who could win in the South. “He ultimately comes across as a moderate among angry, hollering other candidates,” McCormick said. “He’s a fresh face, which also gives him an advantage.”

Now, what’s actually pretty interesting about that article is that beyond the expert quote, there’s no evidence to support the article’s thesis. Indeed, this is really the key section:

Under caucus rules, voters in each precinct first stand in a group for their candidate of choice. But any candidate who does not reach 15 percent in a given precinct is deemed “not viable,” and his supporters will then pick another. The four candidates leading in polls are expected to be viable in urban precincts, so only supporters of minor candidates, such as Dennis J. Kucinich, will be in play. Because support for each candidate is not evenly distributed, some of the major candidates may not reach 15 percent in the many small rural precincts, where as few as a dozen voters may turn out. In those smaller precincts, supporters for Edwards hope his positive campaign and rural upbringing could help him dominate in the second-choice voting, because he will not be associated with attacks on those voters’ initial choice. (emphasis added)

Why run a story on such weak foundations? It’s one example of why I think Edwards will be the big winner coming out of Iowa — he fits in best with the media’s professional and personal proclivities. Professionally, the media wants close races and new faces. An Edwards surge provides both. Personally, reporters don’t appear to really like Dean or Kerry all that much. In contrast, they do seem to like Edwards (see this Time dispatch for an example). I heard Brit Hume say on Fox News Sunday that “John Edwards is engaging, likeable, appealing.” Brit Hume doesn’t like anything, for God’s sake. If any of the Democrats has the Clintonian charisma, it’s Edwards. If Kerry wins, he’s going to get a bump, no doubt — and New Hampshire becomes an interesting question. But if Edwards performs better than either Gephardt or Dean at the caucus, reporters are going to lock in on him as the story of the week. Whether he can sustain it is an entirely different question. My apologies to Kerry and Edwards for sealing their doom. UPDATE: Much obliged to Michele Catalano at The Command Post for posting this as an op-ed. ANOTHER UPDATE: Hmmm… the New York Times has actual evidence that Edwards might pick up second-round caucus votes:

Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio said today that he and Senator Edwards had reached an agreement specifying that if neither reached the 15 percent viability threshold for delegates, the supporters of both would unite behind the candidate with greater support. “John and I are friends,” Mr. Kucinich said. “He and I have complementary constituencies. I’m going to do well in college towns and urban areas. He is going to do well in rural areas. Rather than leave it up to chance, we’re letting our supporters know to support the other guy.”

This ain’t a misquote — Kucinich posted this quote on his blog. Tactically, I understand this. Strategically, I’m not sure how much any viable Democrat would want to be associated with Kucinich.