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The Des Moines Register has actual numbers on the caucus (link via Atrios) — and as I’m writing this, Kerry and Edwards are having big nights; Dean and Gephardt, not so much. The fact that Kerry and Edwards are doing so well in Des Moines — the most liberal part of the state — suggests ...

By Daniel W. Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

January 20, 2004, 2:14 AM

The Des Moines Register has actual numbers on the caucus (link via Atrios) -- and as I'm writing this, Kerry and Edwards are having big nights; Dean and Gephardt, not so much. The fact that Kerry and Edwards are doing so well in Des Moines -- the most liberal part of the state -- suggests that these results are going to hold. A few quick thoughts: 1) Hey, I was right!! [About as often as a stopped watch!--ed. That's pretty much my read, too.] At least about the finish. We'll see if I'm right about the press reaction. 2) The nets seem puzzled by the fact that -- according to the entrance polls -- roughly 75% opposed the war in Iraq but are not supporting Dean, the clearest anti-war candidate. This doesn't puzzle me as much. I suspect most Democrats don't want to refight the fight over the war -- it's happened. The question for them -- for all of us -- is where to go from here, given that we're in Iraq. 3) Howard Dean is not going away anytime soon -- he's still got the money and the national organization. I'm sure the press is thrilled by this fact. 4) I never thought I would say this -- but I feel sorry for Richard Gephardt. UPDATE: A few more thoughts given that the initial results held: 5) To paraphrase an old Jewish aphorism, is this good for the blogs? Regardless of one's political stripe, the blogosphere embraced Dean's Internet campaign as a kindred spirit, emblematic of the same phenomenon that propelled blogs into prominence. I'm asking in a half-serious way what Scrappleface is asking in a completely humorous way. [You could spin this the other way -- what killed Dean/Gephardt was the chase for establishment endorsements and union endorsements--ed. Well, I certainly like that interpretation better -- whether it's true or not I'll leave to the commenters.] 6) Having just seen Kerry, Edwards, and Dean's speeches, my respect for Edwards' political skills is growing. In many ways all three of them touched on the same themes -- the economy, health care, people vs. the powerful, etc. However, Edwards' emphasis was on lifting people up without tearing anyone down -- in this way, Edwards is the anti-Krugman candidate. Meanwhile, Dean and Kerry still sounded negative (Dean -- who seemed to have taken too many uppers -- was bashing other Democrats; Kerry -- far more sober -- was bashing Bush). LAST UPDATE: Will Saletan has more worth thinking about.

The Des Moines Register has actual numbers on the caucus (link via Atrios) — and as I’m writing this, Kerry and Edwards are having big nights; Dean and Gephardt, not so much. The fact that Kerry and Edwards are doing so well in Des Moines — the most liberal part of the state — suggests that these results are going to hold. A few quick thoughts: 1) Hey, I was right!! [About as often as a stopped watch!–ed. That’s pretty much my read, too.] At least about the finish. We’ll see if I’m right about the press reaction. 2) The nets seem puzzled by the fact that — according to the entrance polls — roughly 75% opposed the war in Iraq but are not supporting Dean, the clearest anti-war candidate. This doesn’t puzzle me as much. I suspect most Democrats don’t want to refight the fight over the war — it’s happened. The question for them — for all of us — is where to go from here, given that we’re in Iraq. 3) Howard Dean is not going away anytime soon — he’s still got the money and the national organization. I’m sure the press is thrilled by this fact. 4) I never thought I would say this — but I feel sorry for Richard Gephardt. UPDATE: A few more thoughts given that the initial results held: 5) To paraphrase an old Jewish aphorism, is this good for the blogs? Regardless of one’s political stripe, the blogosphere embraced Dean’s Internet campaign as a kindred spirit, emblematic of the same phenomenon that propelled blogs into prominence. I’m asking in a half-serious way what Scrappleface is asking in a completely humorous way. [You could spin this the other way — what killed Dean/Gephardt was the chase for establishment endorsements and union endorsements–ed. Well, I certainly like that interpretation better — whether it’s true or not I’ll leave to the commenters.] 6) Having just seen Kerry, Edwards, and Dean’s speeches, my respect for Edwards’ political skills is growing. In many ways all three of them touched on the same themes — the economy, health care, people vs. the powerful, etc. However, Edwards’ emphasis was on lifting people up without tearing anyone down — in this way, Edwards is the anti-Krugman candidate. Meanwhile, Dean and Kerry still sounded negative (Dean — who seemed to have taken too many uppers — was bashing other Democrats; Kerry — far more sober — was bashing Bush). LAST UPDATE: Will Saletan has more worth thinking about.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

Tag: Politics