New Hampshire update

My prediction that John Edwards would get the biggest media bump because reporters like him better than the other candidates hasn’t been completely borne out. A quick Google search reveals that Kerry got more play out of Iowa than Edwards. John Ellis thinks that the Rule of Two means New Hampshire is getting played in the media as Dean vs. Kerry, leaving Edwards out of the media spotlight. As for the content of the spin, Franklin Foer admits to a “growing male crush” on Edwards, but Josh Marshall compares him to Chinese food — great when you consume it, but then you’re hungry an hour later. The Boston Globe might not love Kerry, but at this point he’s the bigger story than Edwards. But what about the polls? The ARG tracking poll shows Kerry getting a much bigger boost than Edwards in New Hampshire. Same with Zogby. However, two other polls suggest Edwards is gaining more steam. The Boston Herald poll does show Edwards reaching double-digits — and only five points behind Wesley Clark. Rasmussen has Edwards with 15%, and in the past two days passing both Clark AND Dean for second place. For Kerry, a resounding victory in New Hampshire unquestionably builds momentum for February 3rd. At this point, he’s the only candidate who could have the race locked up by that date. Winning New Hampshire and South Carolina (the latter is a huge if and dependent only on a wave of momentum coming from a New Hampshire victory) would deal a mortal blow to both Dean and Edwards. However, if Edwards manages to beat Clark in New Hampshire, he kills Wesley Clark’s campaign. How could Clark possible argue that he’s electable if he finished behind Edwards despite the fact that he ignored Iowa? A stronger-than-expected showing for Edwards in New Hampshire — over 20% and better than Clark or Dean — means Kerry can’t win South Carolina — and the race moves onto more Edwards-friendly terrain. One other fact suggests that Edwards is still a potent threat — Matt Drudge is going after him. Developing…. UPDATE: James Joyner has thoughts on the race, and the value of tracking polls. ANOTHER UPDATE: As for Dean, David Tell has this killer anecdote from an Edwards speech:

“I’m sure you all saw a lot of the speeches that were given after the Iowa caucuses . . . ,” Edwards began. But before he could finish the thought, a voice in the crowd said “Ohhhh, yeah” in that tone of voice a man uses at the office watercooler during discussions about the latest celebrity-weirdo embarrassment. And just like that, in a flash, 200-some-odd Democratic loyalists filled the Portsmouth V.F.W. post with unrestrained laughter. Nobody even had to mention his name. John Edwards’ mere allusion to “the speeches that were given after the Iowa caucuses” called Howard Dean–unflatteringly–to mind. When they begin to laugh at you automatically, you’re dead.