My final thoughts on New Hampshire

John Ellis reports that the media covering the NH primary is at sea:

It’s clear that the national political press corps is flummoxed by New Hampshire. They have no idea what’s going on, although they all agree that Kerry will win. Novak has been reduced to quoting “an elderly couple” in his hotel lobby. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal both seem whipsawed by all the tracking polls.

I’m feeling energized by the fact that I was right about Iowa, so I’m taking advantage of the Mediasphere’s confusion to make bold, half-assed predictions for tomorrow!! [As bold as Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, who has actual percentages?–ed. Not that bold!!] Clearly, the tracking polls are going to be of little help. Compare the ARG with the Zogby and you start to appreciate the concept of “standard error” in a whole new way (a point Mark Kleiman made in the past week). So, I’m basing my prediction on one ironclad historical fact — Granite State voters like to mindf#&k the pollsters and the pundits. Sometimes they’ll do this for the sheer fun of it — remember, Pat Buchanan won the state in 1996. So, pooling that fact in with the assorted polls and reportage, here are my predictions:

1) Kerry 2) Dean 3) Edwards 4) Lieberman 5) Clark.

I’m not so bold as to be able to predict a Dean victory. But let’s face it, the scream effect has worn off, for the same reason that the cops tried for the Rodney King beating received a not guilty verdict — watch the video repeatedly, and the visceral effect starts to wear off. As ABC’s The Note notes: “Many of his supporters here are angry at the media and the process and are fighting back (unlike in Iowa, where they seemed more angry at Dean).” As for Kerry, I’m going with Jacob Levy and Mickey Kaus that Kerry wears out his welcome over time. Finally, as John Ellis (again) points out, the national media want to bury Dean in New Hampshire. The best way for the Granite State to stop that is for Dean to play the Clinton angle post-primary. So I’m saying Dean will finish within five points of Kerry — I’m just not sure of which side of him he’ll finish. [Your readers want something more specific–ed. Fine — Kerry by 3%] The other steady drumbeat coming out of N.H. is that Wes Clark’s campaign couldn’t organize a proper bake sale. Democrats are suspicious of him. Republican- leaning independents are more likely to vote for Lieberman than Clark; Democrat-leaning independents are more likely to vote for Edwards than Clark. The debate performance didn’t help. So, I’m saying he finishes fifth. [But wait, doesn’t going with the media flow this time violate your rule about New Hampshire voters?–ed. Above all else, New Hampshire voters expect to be wined and dined. Clark’s organization looks like its not capable of performing even that function.] I was only partly right about the media spin after Iowa, but here goes anyway — they help Edwards again. A revitalized Dean is going to go after Kerry with a vengeance, and Kerry’s anti-Shermanesque motto — “I will lose the South” — will cause Kerry’s upticks in the polls to melt away in the South. If Edwards makes a credible showing in New Hampshire, he’ll be able to attract sufficient strength in the South to stay in the race for a while. Of course, this is all predicated on Dean pulling close enough to Kerry to make things interesting, and Edwards beating Clark. I could very easily be wrong, in which case the current Senator from Massachusetts will start to resemble a former Senator of Massachusetts. If I’m right, however, then the Kerry balloon could pop, and the current Senator from Massachusetts will start to resemble… a former Senator from Massachusetts.