Dramatic developments in Pakistan?

The Chicago Tribune breaks a big story about U.S. plans for a military offensive inside Pakistan:

The Bush administration, deeply concerned about recent assassination attempts against Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and a resurgence of Taliban forces in neighboring Afghanistan, is preparing a U.S. military offensive that would reach inside Pakistan with the goal of destroying Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda network, military sources said. U.S. Central Command is assembling a team of military intelligence officers that would be posted in Pakistan ahead of the operation, according to sources familiar with details of the plan and internal military communications. The sources spoke on the condition they not be identified. As now envisioned, the offensive would involve Special Operations forces, Army Rangers and Army ground troops, sources said. A Navy aircraft carrier would be deployed in the Arabian Sea. Referred to in internal Pentagon messages as the “spring offensive,” the operation would be driven by certain undisclosed events in Pakistan and across the region, sources said. A source familiar with details of the plan said this is “not like a contingency plan for North Korea, something that sits on a shelf. This planning is like planning for Iraq. They want this plan to be executable, now.” The Defense Department declined to comment on the planned offensive or its details. Such an operation almost certainly would demand the cooperation of Musharraf, who previously has allowed only a small number of U.S. Special Operations forces to work alongside Pakistani troops in the semi-autonomous tribal areas. A military source in Washington said last week, “We are told we’re going into Pakistan with Musharraf’s help.”

Here’s the follow-up from the Associated Press. Just last week at Davos, Musharraf appeared to reject this strategy:

He vehemently rejected a suggestion that Pakistan invite a large U.S. force in to patrol the Pakistani side of the border. “No, sir, that is not a possibility at all,” said Musharraf. “It’s a very sensitive issue.” Pakistan has a large, experienced army and has no need of foreign forces on Pakistani territory, he said. “We have a very strong, effective, quick-reaction force who take action whenever we spot any al-Qaida elements,” Musharraf said. “Everyone is very satisfied with whatever we’ve done. On our side, Pakistan operates. On the Afghan side, it is ISAF and U.S. forces which are operating.” “There is total cooperation of the two sides, and things are functioning very well operationally. There is no need of change now.”

Other reports confirm this statement, with Musharraf saying Al Qaeda was “ineffective” and “on the run.” I’d offer some cogent analysis at this point, but I’m torn between two diametrically opposed viewpoints:

1) It’s about friggin’ time. If the biggest cluster of high-level Al Qaeda operatives are in the mountains of Pakistan, that’s where U.S. forces should be. 2) Musharraf clearly feels more secure in his domestic situation than the Western media feels about Musharraf’s domestic situation.

If this weren’t enough for Musharraf, he’s also going to face a backlash regarding the nuclear investigation. The Washington Post reports:

Pakistani investigators have concluded that two senior nuclear scientists used a network of middlemen operating a black market to supply nuclear weapons technology to Iran and Libya, according to three senior Pakistani intelligence officials…. The officials said the findings arose from an investigation being conducted by the Pakistani military’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. The probe, which officials say is nearing completion, was begun after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presented Pakistani officials late last year with evidence that Pakistani technology appeared to have played a role in the clandestine nuclear weapons programs of both Iran and Libya. As a result of the probe, Khan has been confined to his house in an elite neighborhood in Islamabad, one of the officials said, and Farooq has been in detention since late November. Telephone calls to Khan’s home seeking comment went unanswered on Tuesday…. Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president, acknowledged last week that some of Pakistan’s nuclear scientists appeared to have sold their expertise abroad. Musharraf and other officials have said the scientists acted without authorization and have vowed to take action against those involved. That, however, could provoke a political backlash in Pakistan, where many people regard Khan and his colleagues as national heroes.

Meanwhile, this report suggests that the Pakistani government is split on what to do about this. Here’s the closing graf:

Analysts, however, believe Washington will apply more pressure than what the regime in Islamabad can endure. Musharraf, they say, had been the most trusted US ally in the Muslim world since 9/11. Compelling Musharraf to do more on the nuclear issue, diplomats believe, will enhance domestic unrest against Musharraf, which might destabilize his regime. “And the US does not want this to happen – at least for the time being,” a western diplomat said requesting anonymity.

If I was CNN, I’d be locking in South Asia experts pronto. UPDATE: The comments here and on other interesting blogs question the motivation behind the story — did someone leak it as an act of sabotaging the planned operation? There is another possibility — that the leak was a conscious choice designed to flush bin Laden out of hiding. Some suggested last month that the heightened terror alert was an example of Al Qaeda trying to pulse out U.S. intelligence. This could be an attempt by the U.S. government to mirror that strategy. The one thing that mitigates against this line of thinking is that it would have made more sense to leak such a story to the Washington Post or New York Times. The Tribune is an odd place to plant this [Which makes it more credible as an unintentional intentional leak?–ed. This is the kind of hypothesis that makes me reach for the aspirin] ANOTHER UPDATE: Darren Kaplan has more context and background.