Take these for what they’re worth…

Both The Corner and Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire have exit polls from five of the states voting today: AZ: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13. MO: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10 SC: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10 OK: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28 DE: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11 ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

Both The Corner and Taegan Goddard's Political Wire have exit polls from five of the states voting today:

Both The Corner and Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire have exit polls from five of the states voting today:

AZ: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13. MO: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10 SC: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10 OK: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28 DE: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

As Kos points out about exit polls: “the NH ones were totally off.” However, the key is the Oklahoma number. If Edwards actually wins it, he knocks Clark out of the campaign and forces Kerry to — at a minimum — share the front page. UPDATE: Campaign Desk is just a wee bit annoyed by the leaking of the numbers. While there is some evidence that early poll reporting has a marginal effect on turnout in general elections, I’m not sure if that still holds for these primaries: 1) Exit polls do not have the best track record as of late, so informed voters discount the information. Uninformed voters are unlikely to actively search for the information. 2) Primaries allocate delegates on a proportional basis provided the candidate reaches a minimum threshhold. So, even if a poll shows a candidate losing, the vote can still matter if it gets your preferred choice to place or show. 3) What’s startling about these exit polls in particular is that Oklahoma looks like a nail-biter. Might that not boost turnout in that state?

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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