Will there be a Tet Offensive effect?

David Brooks says that everyone needs to take a deep breath on Iraq:

We’re at a perilous moment in Iraqi history, but the situation is not collapsing. We’re in the middle of a battle. It’s a battle against people who vehemently oppose a democratic Iraq. The task is to crush those enemies without making life impossible for those who fundamentally want what we want. The Shiite violence is being fomented by Moktada al-Sadr, a lowlife hoodlum from an august family. The ruthless and hyperpoliticized Sadr has spent the past year trying to marginalize established religious figures, like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who come from a more quietist tradition and who believe in the separation of government and clergy. Sadr and his fellow putschists have been spectacularly unsuccessful in winning popular support.

Let’s assume this is true — and let’s further assume that these uprisings will be put down. My question is, will this have the same effect as the 1968 Tet Offensive? Tet was a military disaster that nevertheless exposed a vulnerable administration to (accurate) charges that it had micharacterized how the conflict was proceeding — and therefore a long-term victory for the North Vietnamese [You’re comparing this to Vietnam!! Bad Drezner!!–ed. No, I’m asking a more specific question]. My tentative answer is that the political effect in the United States will not echo Tet. However, a Tet effect might kick in outside the United States — in allied countries that have troops in Iraq, and within Iraq itself. In alled countries, countries that dispatched troops had restive populations to begin with — this only makes it easier to mobilize mass action. In Iraq, those who oppose but fear insurgents are less likely to take positive action. The Financial Times has stories on both phenomenon. In one article, they observe that, “Junichiro Koizumi, Japan’s prime minister, faced the severest test of his decision to send troops to Iraq as his government sought support for a rescue of three citizens kidnapped by an Iraqi militia group.” In another article, the FT reports:

The US-led administration in Baghdad was on Friday night fighting to keep Iraq’s Governing Council intact after two ministers quit in protest at the US crackdown on Shia and Sunni unrest. The interior minister, Nouri Badran, and the human rights minister, Abdul-Basit Turki, stepped down, as others among the US-appointed representatives threatened to resign unless occupation forces reined in their assault. “There will be many resignations,” said Haider Abbadi, communications minister, before an emergency session of ministers and the Governing Council – Iraq’s representative body handpicked by the US governor, Paul Bremer, to discuss their future.

Developing….