THE DAY AFTER: A WORLD WITHOUT DICTATORS?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 21, 2003
Washington, DC

Contact: Audrey Seagraves
Tel: 202-939-2242
aseagraves@ceip.org

FOREIGN POLICY November / December 2003
THE DAY AFTER: A WORLD WITHOUT DICTATORS?
Plus, The New Face of Anti-Semitism, Rethinking International Trade, A Global Business Code of Conduct, Migrations New Payoff ,
Ben Bernanke Warns Central Bankers of the Danger of Falling Prices,
and More

Disarray in post-Saddam Iraq offers a sharp reminder that ridding a country of a despotic regime is much easier than figuring out who or what comes after. What economic, social, and political forces will shape the futures of other oppressed nations once their dictators fall? What will happen when Cubas Fidel Castro huffs his last harangue, Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe evicts his final white farmer, and North Koreas Kim Jong Il has his ultimate bad hair day?

To help predict the unpredictable, FP asked top analysts of several oppressed countries to look over the immediate horizon and speculate on the Day After in Belarus, Burma, Cuba, Egypt, Libya, North Korea, and Zimbabwe. What forces will dominate these nations when their dictators fall or die? Which are more likely to embrace democracy and pursue economic reform? What role will each nations diaspora have in rebuilding and reengineering its society? While the answers offer a sober counterpoint to any likely outbreak of post-liberation euphoria, our authors open the possibility of transcending the tragedies of the past. (The Day After, p. 32)

ANTIGLOBALISMS JEWISH PROBLEM
Anti-Semitism is again on the rise. Why now? FP Senior Editor Mark Strauss blames the backlash against globalization. As public anxiety grows over lost jobs, shaky economies, and political and social upheaval, reports Strauss, both the Brownshirt and the Birkenstock crowds are seeking solace in conspiracy theories, looking to expose the hidden hand that guides the new world order. The antiglobalization movement issomewhat culpable. It isnt inherently anti-Semitic, yet it helps enable anti-Semitism by peddling conspiracy theories. In its eyes, globalization is less a process than a plot hatched behind closed doors by a handful of unaccountable bureaucrats and corporations, Strauss writes. (Antiglobalisms Jewish Problem, p. 58)

RETHINKING INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Why have disagreements between rich and poor nations stalled the global trading system? Because vapid debates over fair trade obscure some inconvenient facts, argues University of Maryland economist Arvind Panagariya. First, notwithstanding their demands for equity, poor countries are more protectionist than advanced economies. Second, if rich nations cut their self-defeating agricultural subsidies, their own publics would benefit, but consumers in many poor countries would not. Finally, despite criticisms to the contrary, the WTO can help promote economic development in low-income countriesbut only if rich nations let the global body do its job. Despite the dominance of developed countries and skewed distribution of the bargaining power within the WTO, the global body offers low- and middle-income countries a rules-based forum in which to defend their trading interests and rights, Panagariya writes. (Think Again: International Trade, p. 20)

MEMO TO KOFI ANNANA STRATEGY FOR BUSINESS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Twice, the United Nations has tried to produce workable human rights guidelines for multinational corporations. Twice, it has failed. In the second installment of our new FP feature, Memo to the President, corporate ethicist Daniel Litvin tells U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan why and how the United Nations should draft new guidelines for ethical corporate behavior. (Memo: A Strategy for Business and Human Rights, p. 68)

MIGRATIONS NEW PAYOFF
Everyday, migrants working in rich countries send money to their families in the developing world. Its just a few hundred dollars here, a few hundred dollars there. But last year, these remittances added up to $80 billion, outstripping foreign aid and ranking as one of the biggest sources of foreign exchange for poor countries. Following a boom in the 1990s, this flow of money is lifting entire countries out of poverty, creating new financial channels, and reshaping international politics. Remittances are quietly transforming the world, mostly for the better. Yet they risk becoming casualties in the war on terrorism, write Devesh Kaput of Harvard University and John McHale of the Queens School of Business in Ontario. (Migrations New Payoff, p. 49)

THE DANGER OF DEFLATION
After years of fretting about inflation, can the worlds central banks learn to handle the equally dangerous prospect of falling prices? Federal Reserve Board member Ben S. Bernanke explains why he and his fellow central bankers now worry as much about falling prices as rising ones. [A]llowing inflation to fall too lowlow enough to where it might morph into actual deflationwould be highly undesirable from the point of view of the Federal Reserve, or any other central bank for that matter, Bernanke contends. (Downside Danger, p. 74)

ENDANGERED DIALECTS
Hundreds of languages are at risk of extinction, and as the world becomes ever more intertwined, the number of endangered dialects is likely to surge. But many minor languages can be saved; doing so would help preserve tradition and diversity. (A Loss for Words, p. 3)

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