Where to find evidence that up is down
Curious about information and evidence showing that for Bush and Kerry’s political fortunes, up is down on Iraq? You can find a very embryonic version of this argument in this blog post of ten days ago. The article was based on the polling data that has flummoxed DC insiders for the last ten days. Here’s ...
Curious about information and evidence showing that for Bush and Kerry's political fortunes, up is down on Iraq? You can find a very embryonic version of this argument in this blog post of ten days ago. The article was based on the polling data that has flummoxed DC insiders for the last ten days. Here's a link to the April 19th Washington Post-ABC News Poll, and here's a link to the USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll taken during the same week (hat tip to Andrew Sullivan, who linked to both articles). Kerry's answers about the U.N. to Tim Russert on the April 18th Meet the Press can be found in this transcript. Krauthammer's spot-on essay on Kerry's Iraq position appeared last Friday in the Washington Post. Andrew Sullivan makes the case for Kerry to scold the anti-war movement in this Daily Dish post (you need to scroll down a bit). I discussed the constraints Kerry faces in taking a more assertive position in the Middle East in my last TNR Online essay, "Cornered." I mentioned Howard Dean's desire to send more troops to Iraq last summer in last summer's TNR Online essay about Dean. Richard Clarke discusses the Somalia debacle -- and the mistake of pulling out following the Black Hawk Down incident -- in chapter four of Against All Enemies. A final caveat -- the observation that Bush does better and Kerry does worse if there is trouble in Iraq falls apart if the trouble gets really serious. For all of the bad news coming out of that country, the fact remains that U.S. casualties remain quite low for such an occupation -- especially one with such a low ratio of occupying troops to population. If casualty numbers per week move from the tens into the hundreds or thousands, then calls for withdrawal will become more tempting for Kerry to make -- and the political logic discussed in the article won't hold.
Curious about information and evidence showing that for Bush and Kerry’s political fortunes, up is down on Iraq? You can find a very embryonic version of this argument in this blog post of ten days ago. The article was based on the polling data that has flummoxed DC insiders for the last ten days. Here’s a link to the April 19th Washington Post-ABC News Poll, and here’s a link to the USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll taken during the same week (hat tip to Andrew Sullivan, who linked to both articles). Kerry’s answers about the U.N. to Tim Russert on the April 18th Meet the Press can be found in this transcript. Krauthammer’s spot-on essay on Kerry’s Iraq position appeared last Friday in the Washington Post. Andrew Sullivan makes the case for Kerry to scold the anti-war movement in this Daily Dish post (you need to scroll down a bit). I discussed the constraints Kerry faces in taking a more assertive position in the Middle East in my last TNR Online essay, “Cornered.” I mentioned Howard Dean’s desire to send more troops to Iraq last summer in last summer’s TNR Online essay about Dean. Richard Clarke discusses the Somalia debacle — and the mistake of pulling out following the Black Hawk Down incident — in chapter four of Against All Enemies. A final caveat — the observation that Bush does better and Kerry does worse if there is trouble in Iraq falls apart if the trouble gets really serious. For all of the bad news coming out of that country, the fact remains that U.S. casualties remain quite low for such an occupation — especially one with such a low ratio of occupying troops to population. If casualty numbers per week move from the tens into the hundreds or thousands, then calls for withdrawal will become more tempting for Kerry to make — and the political logic discussed in the article won’t hold.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Twitter: @dandrezner
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