Doha update

Guy de Jonquières provides a mildly encouraging update in the Financial Times on the state of Doha round talks:

Recently, governments seem to have discovered fresh reserves of that commodity and talks beginning in Geneva on Tuesday will test their depth. They will seek to set parameters this month for planned negotiations on dismantling farm trade barriers, the toughest obstacle to agreeing a negotiating framework for the round by the end of July. Unless that deadline is met, the Doha round risks being sidelined by US presidential elections in November. If that happens, the US Congress may feel less inclined to extend the new president’s authority to negotiate international trade agreements into next year. That unsettling prospect has spurred other governments to rally behind efforts by Robert Zoellick, US trade representative, to put the round back on track. Meetings this year are said to have cleared the air and renewed commitment to making progress.

That said, it looks like any deal will be modest in its achievments:

Under US and EU pressure, the G20 last week set out broad principles for this month’s talks, but offered no specific proposals for narrowing gaps between the WTO protagonists. Indeed some leading G20 members now say WTO members should shelve ambitions for big improvements in agricultural market access and settle for agreements to cut subsidies. The shift appears dictated by the reluctance of India and China, key G20 members, to open their farm markets…. But even optimists believe breakthroughs will come only at the last minute, perhaps leaving too little time for deals on other vital elements of the talks, such as industrial tariff cuts and services, on which many developing countries are holding back until they know whether the agriculture stalemate can be broken. Some veteran negotiators hope that fear of political embarrassment will finally force WTO members to compromise. “Governments around the world have pinned their colours to the mast,” says one. “If this ship sinks, they will go down with it.”