Checking important facts and counterfactuals

I’ve blogged about the outfit named Iraq Body Count (IBC) and its dubious methodology before. As David Adesnik points out, mainstream media outlets still rely on IBC for their figures — click here for samples. Adesnik explains why that’s a bad idea. Meanwhile, the Snate Intelligence report leads Kevin Drum to raise an important counterfactual ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

I've blogged about the outfit named Iraq Body Count (IBC) and its dubious methodology before. As David Adesnik points out, mainstream media outlets still rely on IBC for their figures -- click here for samples. Adesnik explains why that's a bad idea. Meanwhile, the Snate Intelligence report leads Kevin Drum to raise an important counterfactual -- given what we now know, would the Senate have voted to authorize the use of force back in October 2002? Senator Pat Roberts thinks the answer is no:

I’ve blogged about the outfit named Iraq Body Count (IBC) and its dubious methodology before. As David Adesnik points out, mainstream media outlets still rely on IBC for their figures — click here for samples. Adesnik explains why that’s a bad idea. Meanwhile, the Snate Intelligence report leads Kevin Drum to raise an important counterfactual — given what we now know, would the Senate have voted to authorize the use of force back in October 2002? Senator Pat Roberts thinks the answer is no:

I think the whole premise would have changed, I think the whole debate would have changed, and I think that the response would have changed in terms of any kind of military plans. Very difficult to look in the rear-view mirror, 20/20 hindsight and say what you would have done under those circumstances. Jay [Rockefeller] has indicated he wouldn’t have voted for it. Jay has also indicated that there probably wouldn’t have been the votes to go to war. I think if we went back to the no-fly zones and the resolutions by the U.N. and an awful lot of talk, I doubt if the votes would have been there.

Andrew Sullivan points out the stark implications of that statement:

So if we had had accurate intelligence, the war would not have taken place. I reiterate: I’m still glad we fought it. But this remains one of the biggest government screw-ups in recent history. It has made future pre-emption based on intelligence close to impossible. And President Bush is ultimately responsible for this. Tenet has taken the fall, but it will take years and years before the U.S. regains the reputation for credibility that this president has destroyed. Even if you believe that Bush is still the best man to fight this war, you also have to concede that his record includes at least one massive error, and one that will cripple our ability to fight the war in the future.

Bush’s response to the brouhaha is here: ”We removed a declared enemy of America who had the capability of producing weapons of mass murder and could have passed that capability to terrorists bent on acquiring them.” The thing that bothers me about that response is the failure to recognize that the decision-making process was a) not good; and b) relied on faulty intel. Sullivan thinks Bush bears at least some responsibility for the latter, and I certainly think he bears a great deal of responsibility for the former.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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