Don’t rush me off the fence, part V

One of the key factors behind my indecision over who to vote for is that I don’t know which candidate will have the better trade policy. If you gauge American public opinion, this is a tough sell. The Bushies are all about hypocritical liberalization — getting the big trade picture correct but offering as many exceptions as possible below the radar — see Alex Tabarrok for the latest idiocy on this front. So what about Kerry and the Dems? Ryan Lizza says I have nothing to worry about, that Kerry will be Rubinomics redux — except Lizza is referring to fiscal policy and not trade. Although Rubin has always been a staunch free-trader, there’s reason to believe that Kerry might ignore his advice on this matter. Michael Crowley voices this concern in his TNR Convention Blog post:

When I asked a Democratic speechwriter about it last night, he told me that with polls showing economic-competition issues like outsourcing to be “off the charts,” as the campaign progresses “there’s going to be a lot more of that [anti-globalization sentiment].”

Even Brad DeLong sounds gloomy on this point:

“You said the Democrats will have problems doing some things. What will they have trouble doing?” “Well, dealing with outsourcing for one thing. It’s coming–it’s coming over the next generation. And the Democratic Party will have a very hard time figuring out how to deal with it constructively. It’s likely to begin thinking that people in India who want jobs processing document-images for U.S. companies are our *enemies*. We can’t afford to do that–a world in which Indians and Chinese in fifty years are taught that the U.S. tried to keep them poor will be a very unsafe world. A world in which we try to block expanded world trade will be a world in which we will be much poorer than we need to be. And as long as people see themselves as being pulled into better-paying jobs in other industries (rather than being pushed out of where they want to be by cheap foreign competition), we can make the coming generation’s expansion of world trade–the coming generation’s “outsourcing” boom–a source of wealth and development. But Democrats will have a hard time doing this.

Sigh. I should be used to being out in the political wilderness on these issues. But that doesn’t mean I have to like it. I’ll close with a link to Brink Lindsey’s great July 2004 cover story in Reason, “10 Truths About Trade“, which nicely debunks a lot of the horses#&@ that masquerades as policy debate on this topic. UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias posts about a Laura Tyson speech at the National Democratic Institute’s International Leaders Forum being held at the convention. The key grafs:

“When people say, ‘well, listen to what the Kerry campaign has said about trade in some of the primaries, we are concerned that Sen Kerry will move US away from trade integration.’ To which I say, well, think about the issue of national campaigns in the US. Recognize that what might be said in one primary . . . is not an indicator of the future.” The thing to look at “is Sen Kerry’s very courageous, very consistent, very long-term record on trade and global economic integration.” A man who has consistently voted for a pro-trade, pro-integration agenda. His career has been oriented in this direction. He has shown “courage in this direction because a significant part of my party’s base is a voice of concern about trade . . . and is consistently asking for policies that would take the US backwards.” Kerry has consistently heard those voices, “and consistently voted a pro-trade record.” Every country must find a way to ensure that those dislocated by economic integration find support for that dislocation. Globalization creates aggregate benefits for countries, but internal distribution of costs and benefits is uneven. “It must be taken entirely seriously as a policy agenda what to do for those who are not better off.” The voices of protectionism in America are the voices of those who have lost, a Kerry administration would do a better job of taking care of those people which will make their voices grow less stridently anti-trade. Thus, Kerry would be better for free trade. “I want to assure you that a Kerry-Edwards administration will continue in the great American tradition of leading the way on global economic integration. Thank you very much.” (emphasis in original)

Here’s the thing — does Kerry’s relatively protectionist rhetoric during the primaries innoculate provide him an only-Nixon-can-go-to-China kind of leverage if he’s elected — or does it politically constrain him from following an instinctive preference for an open economy? Remember that one reason George W. Bush slapped tariffs on steel in 2002 is that he essentially promised he’d do this during the 200 election campaign. Tyson wants to dismiss Kerry’s primary rhetoric — I wish I could, but still have my doubts.