Tyler Cowen gives me an assignment
Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen makes a request: Daniel Drezner remains on the fence, concerning the next Presidential election. He writes about supporting Bush, Kerry, or perhaps a third party candidate (unlikely). But why should he restrict himself to “pure strategies”? Why can’t he support some candidate with some positive probability? How about, for ...
Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen makes a request:
Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen makes a request:
Daniel Drezner remains on the fence, concerning the next Presidential election. He writes about supporting Bush, Kerry, or perhaps a third party candidate (unlikely). But why should he restrict himself to “pure strategies”? Why can’t he support some candidate with some positive probability? How about, for instance, “I support Bush with p = 0.63.” Or “I support Kerry with p = 0.57”, and so on. That way we would know how strong (or weak) his current view is.
Chris Lawrence‘s doubts aside, this seems fair to both me and my readers. I’ll be posting my first p-value after Kerry’s speech tonight. Obviously, this value will likely fluctuate over the next few months. One thing the probability that I will vote for someone either than Kerry or Bush is zero.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
More from Foreign Policy

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense
If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War
Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests
And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.