Another mostly useless correlation

In the past week there have been a great deal of chatter about how the high correlation between the states that voted for Bush and — well, let’s see, there’s the prior practice of slavery, IQ (though this one is apparently a hoax — click here for more), obesity (OK, that was in 2000, but ...

By Daniel W. Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

November 10, 2004, 3:26 PM

In the past week there have been a great deal of chatter about how the high correlation between the states that voted for Bush and -- well, let's see, there's the prior practice of slavery, IQ (though this one is apparently a hoax -- click here for more), obesity (OK, that was in 2000, but I guarantee someone's going to post something about it for 2004), "lasting contribution(s) to freedom, culture and progress (in the blue states)," and "virtually every form of quantifiable social dysfunction." As reluctant as I am to wade in on this -- because all these comparisons demonstrate are potentially spurious correlations -- it's worth pointing out that there are metrics on which the Red states look much nicer than the Blue states. Take, for example, generosity. Laura Walsh explains for the Associated Press:

In the past week there have been a great deal of chatter about how the high correlation between the states that voted for Bush and — well, let’s see, there’s the prior practice of slavery, IQ (though this one is apparently a hoax — click here for more), obesity (OK, that was in 2000, but I guarantee someone’s going to post something about it for 2004), “lasting contribution(s) to freedom, culture and progress (in the blue states),” and “virtually every form of quantifiable social dysfunction.” As reluctant as I am to wade in on this — because all these comparisons demonstrate are potentially spurious correlations — it’s worth pointing out that there are metrics on which the Red states look much nicer than the Blue states. Take, for example, generosity. Laura Walsh explains for the Associated Press:

Connecticut ranks first when it comes to making money — but joins New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island at the bottom of an annual index of charitable giving. The Catalogue for Philanthropy’s 2004 Generosity Index showed Mississippi, for the eighth straight year, as the nation’s most giving state. It was followed by Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama and Tennessee. The survey is based on residents’ average adjusted income and itemized charitable donations reported on 2002 federal tax returns, the latest year available. The index does not take into account non-itemized giving or volunteering, said Carol Schofield of the Connecticut Council for Philanthropy. Connecticut has the nation’s highest average adjusted gross income, at $64,724; its residents donate $175 less to charity than the national average of $3,455. That ranks Connecticut 44th on the index, a slip of seven places from last year. Connecticut was followed by Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and, at No. 50 on the index, New Hampshire. Rounding out spots six through 10 were South Dakota, Utah, South Carolina and Idaho.

You can see the entire list by clicking here. You have to go 26 places before a blue state pops up (New York). My suspicion is that if non-itemized deductions and volunteering were included, the observed correlation would only increase, since one would expect the wealthier states to substitute money for time in terms of altruism, and non-itemized deductions would include a greater number of smaller donations by the less affluent — and there are more of these people in the red states. That’s just a hunch, though. Here’s a link to the Catalogue for Philanthropy’s methodology, and a link to the raw data in spreadsheet form. Again, to derive the conclusion that Bush voters are more altruistic than Kerry voters from this data is absurd — but just as absurd as the other correlations that have been posted.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

Tag: Politics