High stakes or déjà vu in Ukraine?

A few years ago there were sizeable protests in Kiev because of “Kuchmagate,” in which tapes came to light suggesting that President Leonid Kuchma played a role in the disappearance of Ukrainian journalist Georgy Gongadze in September 2000. There was tangible evidence that Kuchma personally ordered Gongadze — who was investigating corruption in Kuchma’s administration — to disappear. Despite months of protests, however, Kuchma stayed in office (click here for an exhaustive World Bank study on this case). Not to put a damper on what’s going on right now in Ukraine, but that example should be kept in mind when speculating whether the protests at the rigged election results in Ukraine will actually cause a change in government a la the Rose Revolution in Georgia [Quickly: opposition leader/reformer/nationalist Viktor Yushchenko led by double digits in Western-run exit polls over Kuchma stalwart/Russophile Viktor Yanukovich. However, the preliminary election results had Yanukovich winning by three percentage points. Outside observers are pretty much unanimous in their belief that there was massive vote fraud]. The two most salient facts in assessing what will happen are that:

a) Leonid Kuchma wants Yanukovich to win; b) Vladimir Putin really wants Yanukovich to win.

I would love to be wrong about this, but it doesn’t look good for Yushchenko. Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner have a pretty sophisticated analysis in the Financial Times pointing out the limits to Kuchma’s influence within legal institutions. My concern, however, is whether the “party of power” will be willing to use extrralegal means to secure their position in the country. They have in the past (though this has not included firing on crowds) — I see no reason it will change now. The one difference between now and what happened two years ago is that the opposition has a clearly identified leader — who went so far as to swear himself in as president yesterday. We’ll see if that makes a difference. As a political scientist who’s spent time in-country, my guess is no. UPDATE: The International Herald-Tribune has more details — but I still don’t see any evidence that Kuchma or Putin are prepared to back down. ANOTHER UPDATE: Ukraine’s Central Election Commission has declared Yanukovich the winner, and Yanukovich supporters have been bused into Kiev. YET ANOTHER UPDATE: In response to the CEC announcement, Yushchenko has called for a national strike. Meanwhile, both the US and EU have (appropriately) slammed the election process. Powell said:

If the Ukrainian government does not act immediately and responsibly there will be consequences for our relationship, for Ukraine’s hopes for a Euro-Atlantic integration and for individuals responsible for perpetrating fraud.

I’m not sure how costly a sanction that would be to a Yanukovich government — which reveals the fundamental asymmetry when talking about Ukraine as the pivot between Russia and the West. If a Russophile is elected, they can get by with Russian assistance (which Putin would be happy to provide). If a nationalist/reformer is elected and tries to move closer to the West, it doesn’t change the fact that the country is completely dependent on Russia for its energy supplies. One interesting diplomatic dimension will be the extent to which both the US and EU bypass the Ukrainian actors entirely and lobby Putin directly. CNN International already reports that Powell “repeated [his] concern to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a separate phone call…. ‘Tomorrow is the EU-Russian summit in Europe, and I’m confident this will be a subject of discussion between the EU leadership and the Russians,’ the secretary said.” Meanwhile, Anne Applebaum provides useful analysis in the Washington Post. Developing….