Ukraine’s fine line between legal and extralegal
Ron Popeski reports for Reuters that Ukraine’s Supreme Court has rebuffed the Central Election Commission’s certification of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich as the presidential winner over Viktor Yushchenko. As previously noted, this is not an outrageous surprise, as Kuchma’s influence over the Supreme Court was not strong. More intriguingly, Roman OLearchyk reports in the Kyiv ...
Ron Popeski reports for Reuters that Ukraine's Supreme Court has rebuffed the Central Election Commission's certification of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich as the presidential winner over Viktor Yushchenko. As previously noted, this is not an outrageous surprise, as Kuchma's influence over the Supreme Court was not strong. More intriguingly, Roman OLearchyk reports in the Kyiv Post that at least one television station has replaced it's Kuchma-crony news director and recast its broadcast in a more "objective" manner. Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner report in the Financial Times on the increasingly uncomfortable position Ukraine's two top oligarchs (Viktor Pinchuk and Rinat Akhmetov) find themselves. If they stick with Yanukovich, they risk a general strike that would have some effect on their businesses. If they permit Yushchenko to come to power, they'll be on the uncomfortable end of a corruption probe. When a government facing a popular uprising, there is a moment when all of Burke's "pleasing illusions" about power fade away, and the rulers face a choice between using raw coercion or backing down. At this juncture, there is one of three possibilities:
Ron Popeski reports for Reuters that Ukraine’s Supreme Court has rebuffed the Central Election Commission’s certification of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich as the presidential winner over Viktor Yushchenko. As previously noted, this is not an outrageous surprise, as Kuchma’s influence over the Supreme Court was not strong. More intriguingly, Roman OLearchyk reports in the Kyiv Post that at least one television station has replaced it’s Kuchma-crony news director and recast its broadcast in a more “objective” manner. Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner report in the Financial Times on the increasingly uncomfortable position Ukraine’s two top oligarchs (Viktor Pinchuk and Rinat Akhmetov) find themselves. If they stick with Yanukovich, they risk a general strike that would have some effect on their businesses. If they permit Yushchenko to come to power, they’ll be on the uncomfortable end of a corruption probe. When a government facing a popular uprising, there is a moment when all of Burke’s “pleasing illusions” about power fade away, and the rulers face a choice between using raw coercion or backing down. At this juncture, there is one of three possibilities:
1) The leadership backs down; 2) The leadership cracks down; 3) The leadership tries to crack down but the coercive apparatus splits.
That moment is rapidly approaching in Kiev. UPDATE: Check out this blogger, based in Kiev, for a straightforward explanation of the interrelationships between Kuchma, Yanukovich, and the Ukrainian Oligarchs. ANOTHER UPDATE: Anatoly Medetsky has an amusing and revealing account of Ukraine’s “blue/orange” split among Kiev protesters in the Moscow Times. The description of the Yanukovich supporters — who come from the region of Ukraine I lived in — ring true. Meanwhile C.J. Chivers reports in the New York Times of hints that the security forces are split on the crisis:
Mr. Yushchenko’s followers also received a lift in morale when a general in the S.B.U., Ukraine’s successor to the K.G.B., appeared on the stage with Mr. Yushchenko in the evening. While not in itself indicating the disposition of the S.B.U., the appearance of the uniformed officer, who identified himself as General Skipalksy of the Kiev region, was the first public display of support for the opposition from within the security services, whose role could be crucial if the peaceful political crisis turns violent.
Developing….
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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