The Ukrainian opposition rolls the dice

Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko and his supporters are now making demands of president Leonid Kuchma. Here’s the Reuters report — but Maidan has an English translation of the actual demands:

The Committee of National Salvation of Ukraine, headed by Viktor Yushchenko, has issued an ultimatum to Leonid Kuchma. Within 24 hours, the Committee demands that Kuchma fulfill the following terms: 1) Discharge Yanukovych from his position of Prime Minister, because of his instigation and support of the falsification of the election and in the separatist actions; 2) On the demands of of the decision of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) of November 27, immediately to begin an investigation into new candidates for membership of the Central Election Committee; 3) Discharge from their positions the directors of the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regional administrations — the initiators of the break-up of Ukraine; 4) Give a deadline to the Attorney General and the Security Services of Ukraine to open a criminal investigation against the separatists/secessionists of Ukraine. In the case of noncompliance with the ultimata, “we will judge Kuchma’s inaction as a crime against the people, with results indicated in the Criminal Code of Ukraine,” continues the ultimatum. “If the demands are not met, we will begin blocking with people the movements of Kuchma himself on the territory of Ukraine. We know where he is and how he is moving about. And we are able to ensure that he will not make a single step without complying with our demands,” stated Yulia Tymoshenko, who read the ultimatum at the meeting.

That 24 hours thing is funny, because according to the Post-Modern Clog, “Kuchma has given the protesters blockading the Cabinet building a 24-hour deadline to clear out.” Actually, it’s not funny. Supporters of Yushchenko want to believe that Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich commands little support, even in the Eastern part of the country – but Reuters reports that “an estimated 150,000 demonstrators took to the streets in Donetsk” in support of Yanukovich. Yanukovich may be a toady of Kuchma and potentially Vladimir Putin, but he’s not wrong when he says, “If only one drop of blood is shed, we won’t be able to stop the flow.” The thing is, both sides have now dug in, and although the Ukrainians are masters at muddling through, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see how this can be resolved through non-violent means. Peter Finn writes in the Washington Post:

The stoking of historical fears about what many perceive as a Russophile East and a nationalist West could continue to split this country long after the dispute over voting is settled, if they do not rupture it beforehand, analysts say. “I think the tragedy of this campaign is the use of stereotypes by both sides, but especially Yanukovych’s people,” said Yulia Tishchenko, an analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, “and the dangerous consequences are now becoming apparent. Everyone thinks that if they lose, they lose everything.”

[Why can’t there be a velvet divorce between the regions, a la Czechoslovakia?–ed. Erin Arvedlund explains the myriad economic problems with this idea in the New York Times, but it’s even more problematic than that. Yushchenko’s response to the eastern threats of autonomy show that nationalists are, well, nationalist — they don’t want only half the country.] I have to think Yushchenko is gambling on Kuchma lacking the ability to use force. However, Mark Franchetti reports in London’s Sunday Times that:

Some feared that the joyful street parties and open-air concerts could still turn into a bloodbath. Lurking in the background, phalanxes of stone-faced riot police and Ukrainian special forces in black body armour and helmets, brandishing machineguns and batons, stood guard silently around the presidential palace. The key to the revolutions of 1989 was the compliance of the security forces in bowing to the wind of change. There has been little sign that today those same forces would be prepared to switch sides and join the opposition.

(link via NRO’s Andrew Stuttaford) The other thing to worry about is the Russian response to any escalation in the crisis. What will Putin do? Helen Womack reports in the Christian Science Monitor that, “The likelihood for a fresh poll increased when a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Russia, which had overtly backed Yanukovich, said Moscow also now favored a rerun.” However, Askold Krushelnycky and Mark Franchetti report in London’s Sunday Times about a more disturbing possibility:

A senior figure in the Ukrainian presidential administration who declined to be identified said that Boris Gryzlov, President Vladimir Putin’s personal envoy to Ukraine, had promised “diplomatic cover” against any international backlash prompted by such a move.

Developing… and not in a way that I’m at all sanguine about.