Who Gets to Run the WTO?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) affects the lives of everyone on the planet. It sets the rules that govern global trade, and its decisions have far-reaching consequences for the worlds farmers, corporations, and governments. This year, as it does every six years, the WTO must select a new director-general to lead the trade body. The new leader will face the daunting challenge of jump-starting stalled trade talks and bridging the chasm between the trade agendas of the rich and poor. The four candidates for the post launched their campaigns in late January. Heres a look at the race and whos likely to come out on top.
Odds: 5 to 2

Pascal Lamy

Why hell get the job: Lamys resume is textbook perfect. Educated in Frances most elite institutions, Lamy served as chief of staff to the president of the European Commission, and only four months ago left his post as European Union (EU) trade commissioner. Not only is the 57-year-old former trade hand Europes candidate but he can probably also count on the tacit support of the United States. His Gallic charm and network of friends in trade ministries around the world are likely to help him shore up more support in the weeks ahead. One of his last actions as EU trade commissioner was to put the unions reviled export subsidies up for discussion. It was a smart movenow viewed in some quarters as an olive branch to the WTOs poorer members, showing that hes prepared to put the interests of free trade above those of French farmers.

Why he wont: Hes French. The WTOs developing-world members have been throwing their weight around in recent years and might not be prepared to accept a director-general from rich, aristocratic France. It was just this sort of objection from the trade bodys poorest members in 1999 that forced the last six-year term to be split between New Zealands Mike Moore and Thailands Supachai Panitchpakdi. And, with a European already at the helm of the International Monetary Fund, many WTO members may question whether it would be fair for Europe to get the top job in Geneva, as well.

Odds: 4 to 1

Carlos Prez del Castillo

Why hell get the job: If the bookies are any indication, Prez del Castillo is a contender. In January, London-based bookmaker Ladbrokes Ltd. listed Prez del Castillo as a 5-4 favorite. That wasnt surprising considering the neoliberal traders knack for making friends in high places. Before becoming Uruguays ambassador to the WTO in 1998, the Australian-educated Prez del Castillo was an original architect of Mercosur, South Americas free-trade zone. Such credentials made the Uruguayan an early sweetheart of powerhouse trading nations, including the United States and Singapore. And he is reportedly well liked by WTO staffers, a relationship he cultivated by chairing the WTOs General Council from 2003 to 2004.

Why he wont: These days, being popular in Washington can be a black mark. Prez del Castillos sympathy for the U.S. and EU trade agendas in the run-up to the Cancn ministerial meeting in 2003 rubbed many developing countries the wrong way. Worse, Prez del Castillo may soon lose the support of his own country. Uruguays new leftist government, led by President-elect Tabare Vazquez, will assume power on March 1, and it is rumored that it may decide to back the Brazilian candidate, Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corra, who is more closely aligned with the leftist trend away from neoliberal economics and free trade.

Odds: 7 to 2

Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corra

Why hell get the job: Seixas Corra is a hero of the developing world. At the WTOs September 2003 Cancn ministerial meeting, he helped formulate the G-20 developing nations proposal to cut rich-country agriculture subsidies, stitching together 11th hour coalitions with India and South Africa. In recent years, Brazil has become an outspoken critic of the excesses of a pure free-trade agenda, further endearing it to the WTOs poorest members. In launching his bid for the plum post, Seixas Corra has said he will uphold the values that Brazil has always stood for. Translation: the values of poor nations. But the Brazilians message may be just vague enough to convince rich and poor alike that he is a man with whom both sides can make a deal. If so, he may be headed to the big time.

Why he wont: Because he isnt aiming to win. According to some insiders, Seixas Corras candidacy was born more out of desire to block Uruguays Prez del Castillowho is apparently persona non grata in Brazilian trade circlesthan any hope of ending up in the winners circle. The logic? A second South American candidate in a field of four will hopelessly divide the vote against the Uruguayan. Even if this cynicism is unwarranted, his bid could still end up on the rocks. His values-driven candidacy wont impress the United States or the Europeans, with whom Brazil has ongoing trade disputes over cotton and sugar. And who can blame them? If Brazil triumphs in these trade battles, it could cost U.S. and European farmers more than $4.8 billion and $1.7 billion in subsidies, respectively.

Odds: 10 to 1

Jaya Krishna Cuttaree

Why hell get the job: Cuttaree is also portraying himself as the developing countries candidate of choicewhich isnt a bad strategy, as they make up 80 percent of the WTOs membership. And, as the current Mauritian minister of foreign affairs, Cuttaree can credibly claim to know a thing or two about the needs of the WTOs poorest members. In announcing his candidacy, he argued that the WTO must reconcile the process of liberalization with the imperatives of development. Yet, given his Cambridge University education and Mauritiuss record of economic liberalism, the rich countries cant easily pigeonhole him as being overtly hostile to a true free-trade agenda. And he has a secret weapon: Hes the only candidate with a campaign Web site, www.jcuttaree.mu.

Why he wont: Running a ministry in Mauritius (population just over 1 million) is no preparation for running the worlds most effective multilateral body. His support among developing world members may erode as the horse-trading gets serious and members focus on effective leadership. And it is rumored that South Africa, one of the most influential developing countries, will soon endorse Seixas Corra. That would probably be a fatal blow for Cuttaree, effectively ending his chances before he even gets out of the gate.