Another day, another vulnerable ex-Soviet republic

If there were an award for Most Quiescent ex-Soviet Population, Belarus would probably just squeak by Turkmenistan for the trophy. Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko rules with an iron fist, but in the past most Belarusians have just shrugged their shoulders in coping with their dictator. Via Glenn Reynolds comes an Interfax report suggesting that may be about to change:

Members of Belarussian opposition parties and movements and entrepreneurs have joined an unauthorized rally in downtown Minsk to show their support for previously arrested opposition activists and entrepreneurial movement leaders, an Interfax correspondent reported.

Here’s a photo:

There are additional reports from Mosnews, Reuters, the Associated Press, and Pravda. The AP has the most detailed account:

About 1,000 pro-democracy protesters [Interfax and Reuters both have the number as only “several hundred”–DD.] tried to gather Friday near the palace of President Alexander Lukashenko, claiming to be emulating the popular uprising in fellow ex-Soviet republic Kyrgyzstan, but they were beaten and dispersed by police in riot gear, and several dozen were arrested. It took the truncheon-wielding police about two hours to disperse the protesters, who chanted “Down with Lukashenko!” and “Long live Belarus!” A group of 100 or so opposition activists regrouped, only to be pushed away a second time. Protest organizer Andrei Klimov said the demonstration was intended to help spark a revolution similar to those that have swept Georgia, Ukraine and, most recently, Kyrgyzstan, ousting unpopular governments. “Today’s gathering must send a signal to the West, Russia and our own bureaucrats that Belarus is ready for a serious change,” Klimov said. “Our aim is to start the Belarusian revolution and force the resignation of Lukashenko, the last dictator of Europe.”

Pravda notes wryly that the demonstration took place, “just as the government criticized Kyrgyzstan’s opposition for the seizure of power there…. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry on Friday harshly assailed the Kyrgyz opposition, warning that its action could destabilize the entire region. ‘The unconstitutional overthrow of the government in Kyrgyzstan could have fatal consequences for peace, stability and prosperity in the country, as well as in the Central Asian region as a whole,’ it said.” The cautionary note comes from the Reuters report:

Belarus’s opposition takes heart from the protest movements which led to authorities being toppled in other ex-Soviet states — like Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. But opposition to Lukashenko remains small and divided, with activists fearing repressive measures. A Belarussian identity was crushed under communism and any post-Soviet revolt would be hampered by a lack of the nationalist sentiment present in the other countries.

That assessment seems true to me — but then again, I didn’t think the Ukrainians were going to rise up a few months ago. The key difference is that, as today’s events demonstrate, Lukashenko will have no problem whatsoever with using all the coercive tools at his disposal to stay in power. Developing — the fourth wave, that is…..