The Pope Quota

At first glance, the hushed deliberations of the 117 Roman Catholic cardinals who will elect the next pope dont have much in common with the diplomatic jostling over the leadership of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Yet in both cases, the traditional right of Europeans to lead international institutionssacred and profaneis under fire. Challengers from Latin America and elsewhere are staking their claim to the worlds top jobs. But in so doing, they may be clearing the way for a quota system that produces mediocrity more often than inspired leadership.

Nearly half of the cardinals red hats rest on European heads, and only a handful of popes have come from outside the continent (indeed, John Paul II was the first non-Italian pope in more than 450 years). The Italian press is filled with speculation about the prospects of winning back the papacy for Italy, and the Irish gaming Web site PaddyPower.com had Dionigi Tettamanzi, the 71-year-old archbishop of Milan, as the early favorite at odds of 5 to 2. Meanwhile, the German press talked up the candidacies of German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger and the Czech-born Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn, the archbishop of Vienna. But within 24 hours of the popes passing, a rush of bets on Nigerias Cardinal Francis Arinze propelled him to joint favorite with Tettamanzi, at odds of 11 to 4. The markets may be on to something: With almost half of the worlds Catholics now living in Latin America, and large numbers in Africa and Asia, it stands to reason that the next pope might be someone other than a European.

If Nigerias Arinze cannot get the votes, Latin America can offer several candidatesand a compelling reason to take them seriously: In 1900, Latin America accounted for a little more than 20 percent of the faithful. Today, with 483 million out of 1.1 billion Catholics across the world, Latin America provides more than 43 percent of the next popes congregation. Sixth in the Irish betting is Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, at 9 to 1. But his chances may be damaged by the likely split of the Latin American vote between two other candidates, Cardinal Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga from Honduras and Cubas Cardinal Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino, the archbishop of Havana. Ortega y Alamino has kept the church alive and reasonably well in the face of Fidel Castros version of communisma nice parallel with John Paul IIs work in Poland.

The race to lead the WTO is every bit as much a geographical horse race. The current front-runners for the job are said to be Pascal Lamy of France, the last trade commissioner for the 25-nation European Union (EU); Carlos Prez del Castillo, Uruguays former chairman of the WTOs ruling General Council; and Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corra, Brazils ambassador to the WTO. The two Latin American candidates should make Lamy, nominated by the EU, the clear favorite. But the prospect of Europe snagging the job on the back of a divided Latin America has alarmed some prominent developing countries. So another candidate has emerged: Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, the foreign affairs and trade minister of Mauritius.

Cuttaree, playing the Third World card, argued in a speech last month that the EU should not even offer a candidate, because it could not speak for the poor. Global justice, he argued, demands that the trade organization have a leader who understands the developing worlds plight. Cuttaree has the formal backing of the 56-nation African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP).

It gets even more complicated. Another important block in the WTO, the Group of 20 developing nations (G-20), led by Brazil and China, may throw its support behind Brazils Seixas Corra. China has already signaled its support, and Brazil is lobbying two other important G-20 members, India and South Africa, to back its man. Uruguay has just rejoined the G-20, and its candidate, Prez del Castillo, agrees that the job should go to either a Latin American or an African, as neither continent has provided a world trade chief since the WTOs predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, was established in 1948.

It is becoming clear that the governments of the approximately 150 countries that call themselves the developing world are no longer prepared to let the 30-odd rich nations dominate the top jobs, although the executive suites at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund may remain preserves of the rich countries for quite some time. In practice, the rebellion against the rich means that many critical international institutions may soon have an informal quota systema mixed blessing at best. The post of secretary-general of the United Nations has passed from one continent to another for decades now. Kofi Annan represents Africas turn at the helm. Before him was Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who represented the Arab world; Javier Prez de Cullar of South America; the European Kurt Waldheim; and Burmas U Thant. (Rumor has it that it will be Asias turn again when Annans term ends.) Reviewing this list, it must be said that the United Nations unwritten rule of quotas has not produced many outstanding figures.

It is always hazardous to predict Vatican politics, but it appears that impatience with the rule of the rich may be spreading to the church. Doctrine holds that the conclave of cardinals is inspired by the Holy Spirit as its makes its collective decision, but the cardinals can fall prey to the same national loyalties, jealousies, and ambitions that afflict their flocks. It would be comforting to think that somehow the votes cast in the Sistine Chapel will produce the best man for the Vatican, or that the horse-trading between the EU, the G-20, and the ACP can produce the more qualified candidate to lead the world trading system. Comfortingbut deeply unrealistic.