Think Again: Tony Blair

Tony Blair Is George Bushs Poodle
No. Nothing repels disillusioned Labour voters more than the idea that their prime minister is at the beck and call of a right-wing Republican president. Both opposition partiesthe Tories and the Liberal Democratsare trying to cash in on this sentiment. A Tory election spot features a clip of Bush patting Blair affectionately on the shoulder, and the Liberal Democrats have a leaflet with a picture of Blair gazing into Bushs eyes with the slogan Im voting to beat the war-mongers. This is the price that Blair pays for what British journalist Peter Riddell calls a hug them close strategy toward the United States. Blair offers public loyalty in exchange for private influence. Unfortunately for Blairs campaign, the strategy also requires that Blair not boast about what he has achieved. So when U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the United States would be joining the European effort to engage Iran, Blair made no victory pronouncement. And Blairs strategy has had other successes. It is highly unlikely that Bush would have tried for a second resolution at the United Nations over Iraq without pressure from Blair.

It is true that Blair often does not take advantage of his strong bargaining position to demand sweeteners for Britain. British firms saw little of the reconstruction action in Iraq and were hit hard by the tariffs the United States slapped on steel imports in 2002. But history will deem that irrelevant if Blair can help the Bush administration broker a Middle East peace dealone of the prime ministers top priorities in private discussions with Bush. Those Britons who want to see a British prime minister publicly denounce the U.S. president will have to make do with Love Actually for the foreseeable future.

Blair Is a Neoconservative
Yes. There are almost as many definitions of neoconservativism as there are neoconservatives. But if the philosophy is defined as a commitment to make the world more democraticusing force if necessary to achieve that aimthen Blair is certainly one. What attracts Blair to neoconservatism is his love of the grand project. This utopian bent also explains his differences with some hardliners in the Bush administration. Whereas U.N. Ambassador nominee John Bolton thinks 10 stories being knocked off the U.N. building would make no difference, Blair would probably like to add 10 on. Blair’s blend of hawkishness and faith in international institutions got him into trouble over Iraq: He genuinely believed that if Iraq could be shown to be in breach of Security Council resolutions, the United Nations would act.

Another belief that Blair shares with neoconservatives is that nothing happens without American leadership. Blair worries that America might lapse back into isolationism, and he pleads with America to stay involved in the world every chance he gets. These exhortations reached their climax in his 2003 address to a joint session of congress, when he explained why America must act: Because destiny put you in this place in history, in this moment in time and the task is yours to do. Bushs wordsmiths couldnt have put it better.

Blair Has Become a Euro-skeptic
No. Blair has certainly tired of endless European Union summits, French grandstanding, and Europes aversion to reform of its labor markets, but he remains convinced that Britains future lies in Europe. Yet he now lacks the political capital to persuade a skeptical electorate of the purported benefits of European integration. A sign of Blairs weakness on this point came in April 2004, when he promised a referendum on the EU Constitution in an attempt to prevent it from becoming an issue in this election. The strategy worked. But it is now highly unlikely that Blair will be able to win a referendum on the constitution. If France votes no, look for Blair to cancel the vote altogether.

In this election campaign, the Labour Party has ruled out joining the euro in the next parliament, something that Blair described as Britains destiny as recently as 2002. At the start of his premiership, he could have persuaded the country to join the euro. He missed his chance. With the more skeptical Gordon Brown, now chancellor of the exchequer, set to succeed Blair, the smart money is on Britain never trading in the pound for the euro.

Britons Have Become More Politically Cynical Under Blairs Leadership
Yes, but its only partly Blairs fault. In the 2001 general election, turnout fell to below 60 percent for the first time since 1918, and it could fall even further this time. Fifty-seven percent of British voters think that Blair cannot be trusted to tell the truth. Undoubtedly some of New Labours spin techniques, such as fiddling with statistics and trying to make one spending commitment look like many, have exacerbated public distrust of politicians. The intelligence failure in Iraq crystallized a belief that New Labour spins everythingeven issues of war and peaceto the limit.

The media, though, must take some of the blame. They have created a poisonous atmosphere in which it is almost impossible for politicians to appear crediblea new poll shows that a majority of Britons believe that both Blair and Tory leader Michael Howard are lying in order to win the election. The BBCs star interviewer Jeremy Paxman approvingly quotes the adage that an interviewer should approach his subject asking, Why is this lying bastard lying to me? One columnist even suggested that Blair supports the United States to make money on the speakers circuit there in his retirement. The British media, and particularly the BBC, has limited self-awareness. On May 29, 2003, a BBC report accused the government of knowingly putting false information in a dossier on Iraqs weapons capabilities. The report set off a chain of events that resulted in the suicide of a government scientist and the subsequent Hutton Inquiry. Revealingly the inquiry found that the BBC initially failed to realize why the government was so incandescent over the report.

Blair Wants a Big World Job After He Steps Down
No. Euro-skeptics fret that Blair is so keen to become President of Europe that he will sell out Britain to achieve his ambition. Others look at Blairs messianic streak and envisage him as U.N. secretary-general, even though no citizen from a permanent Security Council state has ever held the job. But it is likely that Blair will have more humdrum concerns when he leaves office. The first thing hell have to do is pay off the mortgage on his new $6 million townhouse. We can expect Blair to devote considerable time to making money. In a 2001 interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Blair mused that Its amazing how many of my friends I was in school and university with, they ended up so rich. Theres a mate of mine I ran into the other daywe used to run discos together and things, now hes worth millions. In the same interview Blair declared that he was fortunate to be leaving government before my working life is over.

Blair Would Have Been a Better U.S. President Than Bush or Clinton
Yes. In domestic politics, Blair is a non-tribal, non-ideological politician. This disposition makes him far more suited to a presidential system, where you can build coalitions on individual issues, than to the often static party battle lines of the House of Commons. To be elected in the United States, however, Blair would probably need to tack to the center; on most issues, hes far to the left of the average Democrat. What would rural American voters think of his hunting ban?

It is on foreign policy that Blair would have shined as an American president. Even before September 11, Blair had come up with a theory of where and when the West should intervene, called the Doctrine of the International Community. Unlike Clinton, Blair is prepared to use ground forces when necessary. Indeed, his insistence that they must be an option in the Balkans stretched his relationship with Clinton to the breaking point. Blair has a broad vision that the leader of the sole superpower needs. He simultaneouslyand passionatelypushes for democracy in the Middle East and an end to poverty in Africa. Perhaps the most striking example of his foresight is that Blair was raising the need for action in Afghanistan with Bush as early as February 2001, seven months before America was forced to turn its attention to that country. Blair is also a consummate alliance builder; it is hard to imagine that America would have gone into Iraq with so few allies under a President Blair.