Republican Trifecta?
Dick Lugar is probably just spinning, but if he’s predicting he’ll hold all the Republicans — rather than saying he may lose one or two — you have to think he’ll pull it out. The urgent campaign to flip Lincoln Chafee also points to a Bolton confirmation, I think. What does this mean for the ...
Dick Lugar is probably just spinning, but if he's predicting he'll hold all the Republicans -- rather than saying he may lose one or two -- you have to think he'll pull it out. The urgent campaign to flip Lincoln Chafee also points to a Bolton confirmation, I think. What does this mean for the nuclear option and Social Security? Under the old model of Washington power politics, which prevailed under Clinton, expending capital on a fight like Bolton would leave the White House depleted and inclined to give in on something else. Power was seen as finite -- roughly analogous to the theory of mercantilism. On this model, William Schneider argues in the National Journal that Bush's low poll numbers bode ill. But the Bush White House has a different view of power. Exercising power, in its view, creates more power -- the way expending force doing daily reps at the weight room makes you stronger. A Bolton victory, I think, is likely give Bush the additional strength he needs to pull wavering senators into line on abolishing the filibuster for judicial nominees and, if he moves fast enough, to put through a Social Security plan that includes privatization. It's like a Soviet military parade: displaying power makes people fear your power.
Dick Lugar is probably just spinning, but if he’s predicting he’ll hold all the Republicans — rather than saying he may lose one or two — you have to think he’ll pull it out. The urgent campaign to flip Lincoln Chafee also points to a Bolton confirmation, I think. What does this mean for the nuclear option and Social Security? Under the old model of Washington power politics, which prevailed under Clinton, expending capital on a fight like Bolton would leave the White House depleted and inclined to give in on something else. Power was seen as finite — roughly analogous to the theory of mercantilism. On this model, William Schneider argues in the National Journal that Bush’s low poll numbers bode ill. But the Bush White House has a different view of power. Exercising power, in its view, creates more power — the way expending force doing daily reps at the weight room makes you stronger. A Bolton victory, I think, is likely give Bush the additional strength he needs to pull wavering senators into line on abolishing the filibuster for judicial nominees and, if he moves fast enough, to put through a Social Security plan that includes privatization. It’s like a Soviet military parade: displaying power makes people fear your power.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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