The Cheat Sheet: The Iranian Election

Why are they holding an election in axis-of-evil territory?
Iran is only semi-authoritarian. Though the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei almost always has his way on state policy, Irans political system includes a president and parliament (Majlis) directly elected by the people. Parliamentary elections are held every four years, and under the constitution, that body cannot be dissolved. The president, too, is elected every four years and can hold office for up to two terms. A major catch: the powerful six-cleric Guardian Council must approve candidates for both presidential and parliamentary elections.

So if the clerics hold all the power, why do we care about this election?
Many Iranian reformists are asking themselves this very question. Voters eager for change came out in large numbers to elect the reformist Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and again in 2001. But Khatami failed to push back the heavy hand of the clerics in daily life and enact much-needed economic reforms. Khatamis powerlessness was on full display in 1999, during a brutal crackdown on student demonstrators, and last year, when he could do nothing as the government shut down hundreds of publications and barred reformist candidates from running for parliament. Surveys show that only about half of Irans electorate plans to vote on Friday.

The election is still a good barometer of Iranian politics and the governments political intentions. Political change is so popular in Iran that even conservative candidates are couching their platform in reformist language.

What exactly is an Iranian reformist, anyway?
Reform encompasses several grievances with clerical rule. Foremost among them are a stagnant economy and the trampling of civil liberties. The young, in particular, are angry and disillusioned with the lack of jobs, governments censorship, and restrictions on intermingling between the sexes. Many are also eager to see an end to Irans isolation from the West.

The reform movement, after Khatamis failure as president, is now facing a dilemma over whether to seek change from within the system or boycott the election altogether. Because the young are unlikely to rock the vote as they did in the last two presidential elections, the reformists will probably not win. And if they vote and lose, theyve lent legitimacy to the process. As one student leader told the New York Times: People are tired of lending a democratic face to this regime.

Who are the main contenders?
Hundreds applied to be candidates, and the Guardian Council approved only eight of them.

Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is the 800-pound gorilla in the race. Many Iranians resent Rafsanjani for governing poorly from 1989 to 1997, a time that saw little progress in economic or political reform. After wandering through the political wilderness (he even failed to win a parliament seat in 2000), he is back in the mix and styles himself a reformer who has the clout to win policy battles with conservative clerics. He is the frontrunner in the race largely because, as a compromise candidate, he can pick off a critical mass of reformers and conservatives even, though he is not fully in either camp.

The most prominent reformist is Mustafa Moin, a pediatrician and former minister for higher education, who is calling for the release of political prisoners, respect for human rights, and the resumption of relations with the United States. Moin is popular among Irans youth, which is important in a country in which 70 percent of the electorate is under the age of 30 and the voting age is 15. Moin was initially barred from running by the Guardian Council, but the decision was reversed at Khameneis request.

There are five other candidates that are described as conservatives or hardliners, and one of them may well emerge victorious, especially if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote in the first round, and one of the conservatives finds himself in a run-off election.

Khamenei wanted the reformist to run?
The regime is desperate for legitimacy. Observers say Khamenei wanted Moin to run to boost turnout and to prevent a landslide victory for Rafsanjani. A low turnout spurred by apathy among the reform-minded could be an embarrassment to Iran and underline how out of touch the regime is with the Iranian people. Khamenei is a political rival of Rafsanjanis and wants to contain him. Yet as the Great Leader, Khamenei must appear to stay above the political fray. Although Moin will attract voters who initially planned to vote for Rafsanjani, he is unlikely to pull off a victory. But if Rafsanjani wins by a narrow margin, he will have limited political capital.

How will the election affect the nuclear negotiations?
Khamenei and his coterie of clerics and advisors still have control of policy, though the election has brought public opinion on the matter into focus. Candidates are articulating two popular sentiments, sometimes held simultaneously: that Iran should open to the West and that Iran has the right to enrich its own uranium. Rafsanjani has trumpeted Irans right to enrich uranium, and he has portrayed himself as the leader who possesses the stature to represent Iran in nuclear talks.

What about the Howard Dean factor?
This is the first election in Iran in which the Internet is a key part of candidate outreach and media coverage. Although its speculative to say that former Vermont Gov. Howard Deans use of the Internet in his 2004 Democratic primary campaign is the inspiration, at least five of the eight contenders have Web sites, and Moin is a regular blogger. Hossein Derakhshan, perhaps the most famous of Irans 75,000 bloggers, has said that the Internet has made this election one of the most open and transparent elections Iran has ever seen.