The Vote That Roared

To casual observers, the political posturing by conservatives and reformists in Iran ahead of the countrys election on Friday may seem like much ado about nothing. After all, outgoing president Mohammad Khatami was elected in 1997 and 2001 with large majorities and a mandate to reform the political systemand was blocked at every turn. During his rule, heavy-handed conservative clerics ordered the closure of reformist publications, the imprisonment of intellectuals and activists, and a crackdown on student demonstrators. The apparent failure of the reform movement has fueled voter apathy. Yet the upcoming presidential contest is producing surprises for even the most informed readers of Iranian politics. And, in the last few weeks, it appears that Iranian voters are tuning in as well.

For starters, cracks are appearing in the conservative establishment. The powerful Guardian Council misread the public mood when it disqualified reformist candidate Mostafa Moin, the former minister of higher education and a favorite of the intelligentsia and students. Facing public outrage, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei demanded that the Guardian Council approve Moins candidacy. His reappearance has energized the campaign and sparked a round of alliance building and elbow throwing.

Three major hardline conservatives, three reformists, and the heavyweight of Iranian politics, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani are now jockeying for position. The infighting has been even tougher within the conservative camp than between the reformists and conservatives, a new twist in Iranian politics. The two most viable conservative candidates have so far refused to create a unified conservative front, annoying the movements leadership. Almost without warning, this years election has become the most competitive and fragmented election that Iran has seen in the last 25 years.

The level of competition has produced another rarity: uncertainly about who will win. Traditionally, Iranian presidential elections have featured a commanding candidate whose victory was all but certain before the votes were cast. This year, nobody knows how high turnout will be, which candidates will remain in the race, and how the public mood will swing in the last few days. Unlike the previous eight presidential elections, this one has a good chance of being decided in a run-off election, which is required if no candidate manages 50 percent of the vote.

Despite the early predictions of a polite election season, the candidates are running aggressive campaigns. The conservative candidates offer a populist-inspired platform of economic justice, anti-corruption, and economic recovery. Although foreign-policy talk does tend toward tough positions on Irans nuclear program and relations with the United States, most candidates have avoided radical posturing, fearing that they may alienate voters weary of partisan bickering and international isolation.

Rafsanjani, a self-styled pragmatic conservative, has given himself a modest makeover to accommodate a changing Iranian society and popular pressure for political openness and greater participation in the global community. More than any other candidate, his campaign plays up his resolve to tackle the tough foreign-policy issues that Iran faces, particularly tension with the Bush administration. In recent interviews and speeches, Rafsanjani has suggested he is ready to reach out to Washingtonif he is extended a hand. He emphasizes respect for individual liberty and the sanctity of the private sphere in both foreign and domestic policies.

For his part, Moin focuses on political reform as the key to Iranian domestic and foreign policy. His campaign agenda includes a grandiose set of policies that are more aspirational than practical. During the race, he has radicalized significantly and has broken taboos on every front, including outright criticism of the conservative establishment. On foreign policy, he proposes the continuation of Khatamis overall approach, but with more determination, resolve, and transparency to build trust between Iran and international community.

A reformist or a Rafsanjani victory would mark a hawkish shift and a deterioration of Iranian policy on key issuesU.S.Iran relations, the ArabIsraeli peace process, and the nuclear programless likely. But it is still doubtful, given the consensus-driven foreign-policy machinery of the Islamic Republic, that the election will produce a significant change in direction. Nevertheless, a victory for either Rafsanjani or Moin could give Washington an excuse to take a fresh look at Iran, which may be more receptive to dialogue than ever before. Even before the first vote has been cast, however, Irans presidential election has proven auspicious. Hardliners are fighting among themselves, a veteran conservative is reshaping himself to new realities, and a reformist candidate is breaking new political ground. The unprecedented openness and competition allows reform-oriented Iranians to claim at least a moral victory in this election, even if their candidates end up losing at the polls.