The Spoils of Gaza

The scenes from Israel were dramatic this week as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon began to implement his plan to disengage from Gaza. Military troops forcibly dragged screaming settlers from their homes. Protesters barricaded themselves in synagogues. Meanwhile, Jewish settlers in the West Bank watched nervously. They know they could be the next to be asked to pack up their homes. The settlers in the West Bank fear that the Gaza pullout has set a dangerous precedent for the removal of their own blocs. Bob Lang, the spokesman for the Yesha Council, the Jewish settlements representative body, says, Everyone understands that the dismantlement of Gaza could snowball.

The government, of course, denies that one messy pullout will lead to another. Dov Weisglass, Sharons chief of staff, has repeatedly explained that the move will relieve international pressurepulling out of Gaza could increase the likelihood that Israel would retain West Bank settlements in a future agreement with the Palestinians. But most Israelis arent buying it. Only 10 percent of those who support the plan believe Weisglasss rationale for it, and the vast majority of Israelis doubt that disengagement from Gaza will bring either peace or security. Furthermore, the ambiguity shrouding Sharons decision to pull out has further cemented the settlers fear that the West Bank settlements will be next. One mother of four from Efrat, in the Gush Etzion bloc, staunchly rejects the uprooting of her friends in Gaza, but says, If I believed the peace was a real peace, I would leave.

The tragedy is that the settlers are undermining their own cause. Sharons plan provoked a debate within the settlement movement over how best to respond. Some of the nationalist settlers, both of Modern Orthodox and secular persuasions, understood Gaza was a lost cause and would have preferred a more pragmatic effort to save the West Bank from suffering the same fate. But they were co-opted by hard-liners in the Yesha Council who believe that all the land of greater Israel is sacred. In the end, the hard-liners scuttled the strategy of negotiating with the government to save the large settlement blocs in the West Bank and decided not to cede an inch on the Gaza debate. They went directly to the masses in an attempt to garner grassroots supportto defy the rule of law but to follow the rule of God. In Gaza today, they dont see tactics or strategy. All they see is pure sacrilege. And that has made things much more difficult for their brethren in the West Bank.

In the end, the ultra-religious settlers made a crucial error. In trying to do all they could to make the withdrawal as painful as possible for Israel, settlers alienated themselves further from the mainstream Israeli public. This traumatic internal rifthighlighted by the clashes with the army and the stories of hysterical daughters being pulled from their homeshas damaged the relationship between the settlers and the rest of the largely secular public. This weeks violence by Jewish extremists, both against Israel Defense Forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, has marred the movement and eaten away at what was once a considerable base of support. The majority of supporters of the disengagementa recent survey suggests 73 percent of Israelisnow see the Gaza withdrawal as a first step toward an extensive evacuation of the West Bank. The hard-liners antics have lowered the Israeli publics tolerance for their cause, and left them boxed in.

To be sure, Sharon will not be able to move quickly on the West Bank. It is an election year, and any further dismantlement will cost him the affection of his right-wing electorate. He could handle the resignation of Benjamin Netanyahu from his cabinet, but any further erosion of right-wing support could be too much. Sharon has approved the construction of 3,500 new housing units in the West Bank this year. He also recently dismissed calls to eliminate the Settlement Division of the World Zionist movement, a body charged with settling the West Bank. And recently, the Israeli government issued tenders for the building of 72 new houses in Beitar Ilit, already home to more than 20,000 settlers. For now, Sharon will hold the line.

But after this weeks violence, the center majority may no longer tolerate government handouts and reassurances to its most spoiled sector. Its clear that the tectonic plates have shifted. And as time passes, the facts on the ground in the West Bankspecifically the continual construction of the separation wall and the settlementswill become further entrenched. Sharon has already said that the completion of the wall through Jerusalem will be sped up as a national priority. There will also be increased external pressure from the Americans and the Palestinians to define the status of the West Bank. Unfortunately, the hardliners have undermined their own position by choosing ideology over clear thinking. When the question surfaces again, the settlers in the West Bank will realize they have lost more ground than just Gaza.