There Goes the Neighborhood

Since he came to power in late 2001, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has enjoyed about as balmy a regional climate as an Afghan leader can expect. Neighboring Pakistan, once the Talibans lead patron, has cooperated with U.S. forces to root out al Qaeda remnants. Russia, Afghanistans tormentor for many years, supports the U.S.-led mission in the country. Iran, which has traditional links to Afghanistans small Shiite population, has been preoccupied with developments in Iraq. But, in recent months, Karzais chorus of international support has started to dwindle.

Consider some of the recent changes to Karzais strategic backyard. To the east, Afghan-Pakistan relations have dipped to a new low. Karzai and Pakistans president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf have sniped at each other for weeks about whether Pakistan is cracking down hard enough on extremists in its hinterland. An Afghan government spokesman said recently that all the weapons, ammunition, budgets, money transfer systems and safe havens for terrorists are located in Pakistan. Musharraf has rejected such charges, and prominent Pakistanis have accused Karzai of using Pakistan as an excuse for his failures. The verbal exchanges became so heated this summer that President George W. Bush felt obliged to help smooth relations by arranging a phone call between the leaders.

The northern frontier doesnt look much better. On July 29, Uzbekistan demanded that the United States leave the airbase it had been using as a hub for operations in Afghanistan. The immediate impetus for the decision was U.S. criticism of the bloody Uzbek crackdown in Andijan and subsequent assistance to refugees fleeing the country. But the decision came in the context of growing discomfort with the American presence in the region. In July, the Shanghai Cooperation Organizationcomprising China, Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistancalled for a timetable for the withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan. At the root of Central Asian concern about the U.S. presence is the current of democratization that has been running through the region, from Georgia to Ukraine and Kirgizstan. Nervous leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and Tashkent believe the United States is fostering the movement. Most of the Shanghai states still have an interest in a stable Afghanistan, but they have a much more immediate interest in containing what they see as dangerous political instability in the neighborhood. Pushing the United States out of regional bases is a way of signaling displeasure with American encouragement of democratic forces.

U.S. support for the Afghan government remains strong, but there is cause for Karzai to worry about that relationship as well. The recent departure of U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad to become U.S. envoy to Iraq deprives Karzai of his most important foreign confidant. Khalilzad, ambassador from November 2003 until June of this year, had been a senior National Security Council official and is close to both President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. His Afghan heritage and language skills allowed him to play an unusually active role in Afghan politicsdisgruntled Afghan observers even nicknamed him the viceroy. Ronald Neumann, the new U.S. ambassador, is a career foreign service officer who is undoubtedly competent and well briefed. But he lacks Khalilzads ability to cut through interagency feuds and, if necessary, get the ear of the president.

These headaches abroad come at a time when Karzais domestic docket is overflowing. He faces parliamentary elections in September that could weaken his freedom of maneuver. Hes battling an insidious drug trade that threatens to corrupt the countrys new institutions. And, of course, he must defeat the persistentif still low-levelTaliban insurgency. When Taliban agitators in eastern Afghanistan downed a U.S. helicopter full of commandos in June, they scored their biggest success to date against American-led forces. The insurgents have also wreaked havoc in the southern city of Kandahar, the historical home of the Taliban, assassinating several moderate clerics who supported Karzai.

The Afghan president has been feted so often by international leaders that its easy to forget his vulnerability. But for all his achievements in moving Afghanistan toward stable democracy, hes still the struggling leader of a weak country in a tough neighborhood. As the glow of post-9/11 international cooperation fades, hes going to have to watch his back abroad as well as at home.