Will Singapore remain the outlier?

Whenever people start talking about the interrelationships between regime type, the rule of law, economic development, and political corruption, the outlier is always Singapore. Think that economic development inexorably leads to freedom of the press? Hello, meet Singapore. Think that authoritarianism automatically leads to corruption? Have you met Singapore? Think that no government can plug its country into the Internet while still retaining a vast web of censorship? Yes, yes, that is Singapore over there in the corner giving you the raspberry. [So what do political scientists say whenever the Singapore is brought up as the counterexample to the general rule?–ed.] There are a few options available:

OPTION #1: “Oh, you say a small city-state violates my covering law? I say ‘feh.’ All statistical relationships will have outliers. The general observation still holds.” OPTION #2: “Unless Lee Kuan Yew can be cloned, this is a unique example of political leadership that doesn’t generalize beyond the borders of Singapore.” OPTION #3: “Oh, Singapore won’t remain an exception for long. A one party state cannot be combined with information technology and a free market and live to tell the tale. You just wait…. yes, you wait right over there in the corner.” OPTION #4: “Singapore is merely the exemplar to demonstrate that these kind of feel-good generalizations break down when applied outside of OECD countries. Deal with it.”

Some of these options are not mutually exclusive. My thought piece on information technology and regime type takes some steps towards the third position. So I’m pleased to see that Associated Press reporter En-Lai Yeoh is also moving in that direction:

Singaporeans are seeing “Sex and the City” on TV. Actors may utter four-letter words on stage. Opposition parties can gather without police permission–as long as they do it indoors. Tiny and famously disciplined Singapore is turning 40 on Tuesday, and continuing to lighten up. Gone are the days when chewing gum and long hair were banned. Singaporeans are even being allowed to bungee-jump and dance on bar tables. In April, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong explained: “We risk being relegated to the second league if we rely only on past achievements. We must continue to reinvent ourselves.” Political analyst Ho Khai Leong of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies says the ruling People’s Action Party is being pragmatic without relaxing its grip on power over the island and its 4.2 million citizens. “It can’t remain authoritarian when globalization is on your doorstep,” he said. “There is a dynamic to the desire to be more open.”…. The Internet puts the government in a quandary. It knows the future depends on an Internet-savvy public but recognizes the Web’s power to bypass state-controlled media and foment its own kind of people power. The Internet effect was evident in June, when an online petition became a driving force behind the ouster of the head of the largest government-backed charity, the National Kidney Foundation, for allegedly misusing funds. “Rarely have Singaporeans showed such unanimous purpose in demanding change, and it worked–an undeniable plus for democracy,” said political commentator Seah Chiang Nee.

I’m not holding my breath anytime soon for displays of Singaporean people power. But this story suggests that maybe there are limits to how far Singapore’s exceptional identity can be maintained.