Whither Egyptian democracy?

Egypt’s first multi-candidate presidential elections were held today, and much of the press coverage echoes this London Times account by Richard Beesron: “the experiment in democracy risked being seriously compromised by intimidation, electoral abuse and widespread voter apathy.” Dan Murphy’s account in the Christian Science Monitor includes corruption among the sins of this elecvtion:

The bus is rolling through the narrow dirt roads of Dar El-Salam, a down-at-heel Cairo neighborhood, and men and women are running to catch it, afraid they’ll miss voting in Egypt’s first presidential election. The man with well-oiled hair cramming them into the rusty machine – festooned with portraits of President Hosni Mubarak – isn’t collecting fare. Instead, he’s gathering ID cards to be checked against voter rolls. Those will be returned, with 20 Egyptian pounds ($3.20), after his riders cast their votes – for the incumbent.

Sounds rather depressing. However, Steven Cook writes on Foreign Policy‘s web site that in the long term, Hosni Mubarak may get more reform than he originally planned:

[J]ust because the election was a sham, doesn?t mean that it was meaningless. The constitutional amendments that were instituted to make the election possible may just open the door for real democracy in Egypt…. Influential elements of Egyptian society are already mobilizing to push Mubarak?s changes further than he anticipated. Approximately 3,000 members of Egypt?s Judges Club, for instance, are insisting that they be given full authority to supervise the presidential elections to ensure polling is conducted freely and fairly. One astute Egyptian observer puts it this way: ?Egyptian judges now know the power of making collective, public demands, buoyed by the admiration and support of pro-democracy forces and the glare of the international and domestic media.? Other groups are following suit, including journalists, human rights activists, Islamists, and even Egypt?s sclerotic opposition parties. All are signaling to Mubarak and his regime that business as usual is no longer acceptable. Mubarak?s appointed successor, whoever it is, will likely not be able to waltz through the 2011 elections by believing merely that his patronage network will be enough to trump these reform-minded forces. While immediately unsatisfying, Mubarak?s constitutional amendments could make a significant impact on Egyptian politics in the middle to long term. Sure, the changes seem like yet another gambit to reinforce Egypt?s existing political order under the guise of reform. But they nevertheless have the potential?in combination with continued internal and external pressure for change?to provide the basis for significant moves toward real democracy. The status quo in Egypt is slowly slipping away. And by 2011, Egypt may have a president who is neither a military officer nor a civilian with the last name Mubarak.

Developing…. UPDATE: The AP’s Maggie Michael reports that Egypt’s regime might be feeling some blowback earlier than he had anticipated:

More than 3,000 people marched through downtown Cairo at midafternoon — by far the largest crowd ever drawn by the opposition group Kifaya, or “Enough” in Arabic. Police watched from a distance, despite government vows that protests would not be allowed.