Is any country prepared for the avian flu?

As the Bush administration continues to develop its pandemic plan, I’m beginning to wonder if any country is really prepared for a pandemic. The Financial Times reports that the EU isn’t prepared for an avian flu pandemic. What’s interesting is why:

Europe is not properly prepared for a flu pandemic and has inadequate supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs, says an internal European Commission document obtained by the Financial Times. With avian flu on its borders, the human vaccine situation in the EU is ?far from satisfactory?, according to a note presented last Wednesday by Markos Kyprianou, health and consumer protection commissioner, to his colleagues ahead of a meeting of EU health ministers on October 20. Some member states have reserved all available antiviral drug supplies for years to come, leaving countries that may be first hit by the disease without any access to drugs, it adds…. The report said: ?There are complaints from member states (and third countries) that orders from some countries have reserved all manufacturing capacity for several years to come, leaving no possibilities for others who may be hit first.? It also said the situation was ?far from satisfactory?, for pandemic vaccines. ?Some member states have concluded advanced purchase agreements for the H5N1 virus vaccine?. The EU warnings of capacity shortfalls will increase pressure on Roche, sole distributor of Tamiflu the principal flu antiviral drug as Cipla, an Indian drugs company, has said it is beginning to make a generic version in defiance of patent laws.

There are going to be some nasty intra-EU squabbles if a pandemic breaks out anytime soon (which, it should be stressed, is far from certain. Experts are predicting an outbreak by 2020. So, with luck, this will turn out to be like the Y2K problem rather than the 1918 influenza outbreak). UPDATE: Tyler Cowen makes the case for not violating Roche’s patent on Tamiflu.