Outgunned in Lebanon

The U.N. investigation into the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has put Syria on the hot seat. Meanwhile, a quieter but no less important drama has been unfolding next door in Lebanon. As Syrias government teeters, the Lebanese are wondering whether Hezbollahthe powerful Shiite militia and political partywill outlast its patrons in Damascus.

Hezbollahs spiritual leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, recently told a predominantly Shia audience south of Beirut, We stand by Syria in the face of targeting by the Americans and Zionists and attempts to punish it politically for standing by Lebanon and its resistance. Nasrallahs stubborn support for Damascus cuts against a broad political consensus, particularly amongst Lebanons Sunnis and Christians, that the country should become fully independent. But with a deep cache of weaponry and no intention of disarming, Hezbollahs fate isnt tied to its approval rating. It is determined to keep Lebanon a quasi-independent client state, and it has openly rejected U.N. resolutions designed to bolster a fragile Lebanese democracy. Until Hezbollah is disarmed, Lebanons future will be uncertain at best.

Is there anyone who can defang Hezbollah? Certainly not the current president, Emile Lahoud, a Syrian lackey who enjoys Hezbollahs support. It was Lahouds extraconstitutional reinstatement by Syria, after all, that precipitated Hariris killing. Lahouds closest aide, Mustafa Hamdan, is one of four Lebanese security officials named by U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis for involvement in the assassination. If Lahoud isnt guilty, he is certainly complicit. And despite public dissatisfaction with his leadership, Lahoud vows to serve until the expiration of his term in 2008.

Several Christian politicians are jostling for Lahouds job, most prominent among them Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, and Michel Aoun, of the Free Patriotic Movement. But this next generation of Lebanese politicians may be no better equipped to tame Hezbollah. Geageas party is indebted to Hezbollah for its support in last summers elections. For his part, Aoun has talked tough on the disarmament of militant groups, but theres little chance he would back it up with action; his longstanding rival, Druze leader Walid Jumblat, has cultivated an alliance of convenience with Hezbollah, and Aoun would probably have to follow suit.

The only leader who has the will and capacity to take on Hezbollah is Prime Minister Fouad Seniora. A Sunni Muslim, he rose to power with the Future block in this summers elections and has insisted that the country comply with Security Council resolutions calling for the disarmament of armed factions. At the same time, he acknowledges that disarmament would have to occur through a national dialogue. Senioras position resonates with many in Lebanon, and some observers believe that he may be the key to Hezbollahs eventual disarmament. If Seniora is carrying the ball, let him run with it, block for him, and cheer him on Hes got international support, hes got Arab support, says Lebanese political analyst Tony Badran.

Disarmament, even if it can be achieved, does not guarantee political stability, and any concessions by Hezbollah may come at a steep political price. It will be very difficult for [Hezbollah] to disarm until [it] becomes an important actor in Lebanons decision-making process, says Robert Rabil with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He fears that a disproportionately powerful, Hezbollah-led Shia block could dictate both domestic and foreign policy and generate a new round of sectarian tension.

In seeking to tame Hezbollah, Seniora would be walking a fine line in a turbulent political environment. And that environment may become even more uncertain when the final U.N. investigative report appears, possibly with more guilty parties named. Amid all the uncertainty, one thing is clear: Democracy cant work while Hezbollah remains an armed faction holding everyone hostage.