What a Guy Wants
Each G-8 leader has an agenda to advance at Gleneagles. What does each politician want, and how likely is he to get it?
Tony Blair, United Kingdom What he wants: An African aid deal and an agreement to combat global warming. Blair set lofty goals for his presidency of the G-8, and he has already achieved a debt deal on Africa. However, the summit could end up becoming a tale of how he backed Bush on the Iraq war and all he got was a lousy $647 million in food aid for Africa. What hell get: Hell tout the debt relief deal hes already secured and laud the new consensus he has carved out on Africathe better the governance, the larger the aid. But talks will be marred by the increasingly bitter dispute between Blair and French President Jacques Chirac over the direction of Europe, with Chirac torpedoing any grand G-8 agreements for fear Blair will come out looking too good. George W. Bush, the United States Wants: Not to be blamed for African poverty. His objections to Britains proposed doubling of aid to Africa, and to the U.N. plan for wealthy nations to donate 0.7 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on aid risks making America look stingy. Bush would also like to avoid a commitment of anything concrete on climate change. Will get: Criticism of Bush will be limited by Blair, Bono, and aid organizer Bob Geldofs desire not to turn the summit and the Live 8 aid concerts into an orgy of Bush-bashing. Bush will stress that the United States spends more on clean-energy technology than any other country, but an American refusal to own up to global warming would drown out the message. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy Wants: To keep a low profile. Blair is a key Berlusconi ally on the European scene, but debt relief for foreigners isnt a political winner in a country where the public debt is more than 100 percent of GDP. Will get: The others will be more than happy to let the gaffe-prone Berlusconi stay away from the microphones and cameras. If negotiations become deadlocked, Berlusconi could reprise his role from the failed 2003 EU summit, where, after the talks reached an impasse, he suggested that the leaders talk about football and women. Jacques Chirac, France Wants: Bragging rights. Chirac will be in Singapore on the first day of the summit to attend the announcement of the 2012 Olympic venue. If Paris wins instead of London or New York, expect him to gloat. Overall, Chirac will be keen to embarrass Blairwhom Chirac called pathetic and tragic earlier this monthby demanding things that Blairs buddy Bush cannot offer. Will get: The Olympics, probably. Paris is currently the favorite, and being able to one-up his British archrival should satisfy Chiracs ego. Also, Blairs emphasis on consensus will almost certainly shield Chirac from criticism of the Common Agricultural Policy, which keeps French farmers rich and Africans poor. Junichiro Koizumi, Japan Wants: A Japanese seat on the U.N. Security Council. The summit will give Koizumi a chance to bend leaders ears before the United Nations convenes in September to discuss reform. Will get: Koizumi might persuade the other G-8 leaders that Japan deserves a seat on the Security Council, but it wont make any difference if China remains opposed. Paul Martin, Canada Wants: Its unclear, and nobodys very curious. Martin was one of only two leaders that Blair failed to meet with face-to-face before the summit (the other was Koizumi). Canada will continue to lobby for the expansion of the G-8, which would make itself even less relevant. Will get: Eighteen holes on the famous Gleneagles golf course. But Martin will be most grateful for a chance to get away from the funding scandal that is dogging him at home. Vladimir Putin, Russia Wants: To avoid criticism of his authoritarian ways. Commentators have pointed out the rich irony of Putins lecturing Africans on the importance of the rule of law. Responding to one journalist, Putin said, African countries used to have a tradition of eating their adversaries. We dont have such a tradition, and I believe the comparison of Africa and Russia is not quite just. Will get: Silence about the conviction of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Russias managed democracy. Putin will also score brownie points for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, unlike the United States, China, and India. Gerhard Schrder, Germany Wants: Bush to assault him. His party is trailing by roughly 20 points in the polls, and a public dust-up with Bush is probably the only thing that can save him from defeat in Germanys upcoming election. Will get: Blairs emphasis on playing nice means Schrder probably wont get a chance to berate Bush as in 2002. The meeting will, however, give Schrder the chance to buff up his green credentials before the election, which is important, as his alliance with the German Green Party is rapidly fraying.
Tony Blair, United Kingdom What he wants: An African aid deal and an agreement to combat global warming. Blair set lofty goals for his presidency of the G-8, and he has already achieved a debt deal on Africa. However, the summit could end up becoming a tale of how he backed Bush on the Iraq war and all he got was a lousy $647 million in food aid for Africa. What hell get: Hell tout the debt relief deal hes already secured and laud the new consensus he has carved out on Africathe better the governance, the larger the aid. But talks will be marred by the increasingly bitter dispute between Blair and French President Jacques Chirac over the direction of Europe, with Chirac torpedoing any grand G-8 agreements for fear Blair will come out looking too good. George W. Bush, the United States Wants: Not to be blamed for African poverty. His objections to Britains proposed doubling of aid to Africa, and to the U.N. plan for wealthy nations to donate 0.7 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on aid risks making America look stingy. Bush would also like to avoid a commitment of anything concrete on climate change. Will get: Criticism of Bush will be limited by Blair, Bono, and aid organizer Bob Geldofs desire not to turn the summit and the Live 8 aid concerts into an orgy of Bush-bashing. Bush will stress that the United States spends more on clean-energy technology than any other country, but an American refusal to own up to global warming would drown out the message. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy Wants: To keep a low profile. Blair is a key Berlusconi ally on the European scene, but debt relief for foreigners isnt a political winner in a country where the public debt is more than 100 percent of GDP. Will get: The others will be more than happy to let the gaffe-prone Berlusconi stay away from the microphones and cameras. If negotiations become deadlocked, Berlusconi could reprise his role from the failed 2003 EU summit, where, after the talks reached an impasse, he suggested that the leaders talk about football and women. Jacques Chirac, France Wants: Bragging rights. Chirac will be in Singapore on the first day of the summit to attend the announcement of the 2012 Olympic venue. If Paris wins instead of London or New York, expect him to gloat. Overall, Chirac will be keen to embarrass Blairwhom Chirac called pathetic and tragic earlier this monthby demanding things that Blairs buddy Bush cannot offer. Will get: The Olympics, probably. Paris is currently the favorite, and being able to one-up his British archrival should satisfy Chiracs ego. Also, Blairs emphasis on consensus will almost certainly shield Chirac from criticism of the Common Agricultural Policy, which keeps French farmers rich and Africans poor. Junichiro Koizumi, Japan Wants: A Japanese seat on the U.N. Security Council. The summit will give Koizumi a chance to bend leaders ears before the United Nations convenes in September to discuss reform. Will get: Koizumi might persuade the other G-8 leaders that Japan deserves a seat on the Security Council, but it wont make any difference if China remains opposed. Paul Martin, Canada Wants: Its unclear, and nobodys very curious. Martin was one of only two leaders that Blair failed to meet with face-to-face before the summit (the other was Koizumi). Canada will continue to lobby for the expansion of the G-8, which would make itself even less relevant. Will get: Eighteen holes on the famous Gleneagles golf course. But Martin will be most grateful for a chance to get away from the funding scandal that is dogging him at home. Vladimir Putin, Russia Wants: To avoid criticism of his authoritarian ways. Commentators have pointed out the rich irony of Putins lecturing Africans on the importance of the rule of law. Responding to one journalist, Putin said, African countries used to have a tradition of eating their adversaries. We dont have such a tradition, and I believe the comparison of Africa and Russia is not quite just. Will get: Silence about the conviction of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Russias managed democracy. Putin will also score brownie points for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, unlike the United States, China, and India. Gerhard Schrder, Germany Wants: Bush to assault him. His party is trailing by roughly 20 points in the polls, and a public dust-up with Bush is probably the only thing that can save him from defeat in Germanys upcoming election. Will get: Blairs emphasis on playing nice means Schrder probably wont get a chance to berate Bush as in 2002. The meeting will, however, give Schrder the chance to buff up his green credentials before the election, which is important, as his alliance with the German Green Party is rapidly fraying.
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